George Washington University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.39 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 24 | Fall 2016 |
| Keelboat | 1.28 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 1 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 69–68 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 17–21 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 24–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 16–14 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 12–22 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (137 matches) the record is 69–68 against 70.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 4.84 | 10–2 | 5.9 | +1.93 | 5.4 | 1% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.90 | 3.43 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.69 | 2.32 | 2–2 | 2.2 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | 1.24 | 3–16 | 7.4 | −1.53 | 4.5 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 2.02 | 11–9 | 13.0 | −0.57 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2018-03-10 | Woollum Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 1.59 | 13–2 | 14.2 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 2.70 | 10–5 | 10.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 3.66 | 6–9 | 3.6 | +0.95 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 2.73 | 4–10 | 3.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2016-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 2.53 | 8–12 | 8.4 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.2 | 2.04 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 2.94 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 2.44 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.1 | 4.02 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.6 | 3.31 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 13 | 11.8 | 2.22 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | 3.32 |
| MAISA Match Race Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.0 | 3.52 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 10.2 | 3.11 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.7 | 2.19 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.1 | 2.02 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.0 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 10.1 | 2.89 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 32% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.93 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 2.79 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Wade Wagner |  Walter Payton College Preparatory High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
