Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/18/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	13–2
2	George Washington University	Colonials	10–5
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–5
4	Fordham University	Rams	8–7
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	3–12
6	Washington College	Shoremen	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,725 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.496 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.24 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 70% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	9.08 school +0.12	Alex Woloshyn / Lindsay Gimple 2.83 Connor Kelter / Julie Barbera 3.12 Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 2.86	82%	13–2 (87%)	+0.7
2	George Washington University Colonials	2	8.42 school −0.09	Colin Kennedy / Mercedes Mcphee 2.65 Rhodes Garner / Gabriella Marki 2.88 Wade Wagner / Gabriella Malek 2.81	68%	10–5 (67%)	−0.3
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	7.88	Maxwell Brill / Hannah Hughes Parker Loftus / Kent Mathes Tyler Fleig / Emma Remis 1.87 2–4 Spencer Nora / Karma Richards 1.68 5–1 Spencer Nora / Emma Remis 1.72 3–0	55%	10–5 (67%)	+1.7
4	Fordham University Rams	6	6.70 school −0.15	Brad Seferian / Emma Archard Grace Howie / Cortney Rielly Tucker Hersam / William Dumke	28%	8–7 (53%)	+3.8
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4	7.08 school +0.14	William Gallagher / Daniel Pfeffer Caroline Garth / Max Slosburg Nicholas Floyd / Laura Whelan	37%	3–12 (20%)	−2.5
6	Washington College Shoremen	5	6.84 school +0.20, home +0.24	Alexander Smith / Allison Cochran 1.94 Hannah Schmidt / Griffin Rodrigue 2.00 Matthew Mcdermaid / Lindsey Arnstein 2.41	30%	1–14 (7%)	−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Fordham University	6.70	7.96	8–7	4.2	+1.26	3.6	2%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	7.88	8.45	10–5	8.3	+0.57	0.7	25%
1	Cornell University	9.08	9.47	13–2	12.3	+0.39	0.2	47%
2	George Washington University	8.42	8.32	10–5	10.3	−0.10	0.0	69%
5	University of Pennsylvania	7.08	6.12	3–12	5.5	−0.96	1.6	96%
6	Washington College	6.84	4.90	1–14	4.5	−1.94	4.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Spencer Nora	U. S. Naval Academy	1.68	2.89	8–1	6.3	+1.22	1.3	20%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	2.75	3.32	10–5	8.3	+0.57	0.7	25%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.83	3.21	13–2	12.3	+0.39	0.2	47%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	3.12	3.50	13–2	12.3	+0.39	0.2	47%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	2.86	3.25	13–2	12.3	+0.39	0.2	47%
Colin Kennedy	George Washington University	2.65	2.55	10–5	10.3	−0.10	0.0	69%
William Gallagher	University of Pennsylvania	1.90	0.94	3–12	5.5	−0.96	1.6	96%
Caroline Garth	University of Pennsylvania	1.58	0.62	3–12	5.5	−0.96	1.6	96%
Alexander Smith	Washington College	1.94	0.00	1–14	4.5	−1.94	4.0	>99%
Hannah Schmidt	Washington College	2.00	0.06	1–14	4.5	−1.94	4.0	>99%
Matthew Mcdermaid	Washington College	2.41	0.47	1–14	4.5	−1.94	4.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	2	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
1	3	Cornell University	Washington College	89%
1	4	George Washington University	Fordham University	86%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	68%
1	6	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	91%
1	7	Fordham University	Washington College	43%	upset
1	8	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	82%
1	9	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	10	University of Pennsylvania	Washington College	52%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	74%
1	12	Cornell University	George Washington University	66%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	67%
1	14	George Washington University	Washington College	83%
1	15	Cornell University	Fordham University	92%
2	16	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	40%	upset
2	17	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
2	18	Cornell University	Washington College	90%
2	19	Fordham University	George Washington University	15%	upset
2	20	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	73%
2	21	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	22	Fordham University	Washington College	48%	upset
2	23	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	78%
2	24	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
2	25	Washington College	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
2	26	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	26%	upset
2	27	Cornell University	George Washington University	66%
2	28	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	65%
2	29	George Washington University	Washington College	83%
2	30	Cornell University	Fordham University	91%
3	31	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
3	32	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	62%
3	33	Cornell University	Washington College	91%
3	34	Fordham University	George Washington University	16%	upset
3	35	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	75%
3	36	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	86%
3	37	Fordham University	Washington College	50%	upset
3	38	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	76%
3	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	28%	upset
3	40	University of Pennsylvania	Washington College	62%
3	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	74%
3	42	George Washington University	Cornell University	34%	upset
3	43	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	64%
3	44	George Washington University	Washington College	84%
3	45	Cornell University	Fordham University	91%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Colonials	Midshipmen	Rams	Quakers	Shoremen
Cornell University Big Red	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Colonials	Midshipmen	Rams	Quakers	Shoremen
Cornell University Big Red	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Washington College Shoremen	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Red	Colonials	Midshipmen	Rams	Quakers	Shoremen
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
3	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Shoremen	2-5-6
4	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
5	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
6	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
7	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
8	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
9	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
10	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
11	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
12	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
14	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
17	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
18	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
19	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
20	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
21	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
22	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
23	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
24	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
25	Shoremen	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
26	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
27	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
28	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
29	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
30	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
31	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
32	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
33	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Shoremen	2-4-6
34	Rams	2-3-6	def.	Colonials	1-4-5 DSQ
35	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
36	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
37	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
38	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
39	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
40	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
41	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
42	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
43	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
44	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
45	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18	Lindsay Gimple '17 Diana Otis '19 Julie Barbera '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Colin Kennedy '17 Rhodes Garner '20 Wade Wagner '19	Mercedes Mcphee '19 Gabriella Marki '17 Gabriella Malek '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20 Spencer Nora '17 Tyler Fleig '19	Hannah Hughes '17 Kent Mathes '20 Karma Richards '20 Emma Remis '20
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Grace Howie '20 Tucker Hersam '20	Emma Archard '18 Cortney Rielly '20 William Dumke '20
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Caroline Garth '17 Nicholas Floyd '19 William Gallagher '20	Max Slosburg '19 Laura Whelan '20 Daniel Pfeffer '19
Washington College	Shoremen	Alexander Smith '17 Hannah Schmidt '17 Matthew Mcdermaid '17	Allison Cochran '18 Griffin Rodrigue '18 Lindsey Arnstein '18

Conditions — 03/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.4 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 19.4 kn

From ENE (56°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1017.9 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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