Cornell University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 99–82 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 34–24 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 33–19 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 19–25 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 13–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (181 matches) the record is 99–82 against 98.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 2.94 | 3.10 | 9–12 | 8.3 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.89 | 4.29 | 14–1 | 11.8 | +1.40 | 1.9 | 13% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 2.86 | 8–9 | 8.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 5.03 | 3–2 | 1.1 | +2.12 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.15 | 2.79 | 8–9 | 9.2 | −0.37 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 3.12 | 3.50 | 13–2 | 12.3 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2017-02-25 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 2.05 | 12–8 | 15.2 | −1.11 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.01 | 3.22 | 3–11 | 2.6 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2016-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 3.39 | 15–5 | 13.8 | +0.44 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 1.68 | 1–9 | 2.7 | −1.29 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.73 | 2.73 | 4–3 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.35 | 2.37 | 9–11 | 8.9 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.6 | 3.29 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | 2.52 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.0 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.1 | 2.89 |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 3.27 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 3.43 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 8.0 | 3.30 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 25 | 56% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.5 | 2.58 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.8 | 3.62 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 2.68 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 3.65 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.7 | 2.09 |
| MAISA North Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 3.85 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.3 | 2.81 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 3.12 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 4.13 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.3 | 3.05 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.92 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 14.3 | 2.60 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.2 | 3.25 |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 1.99 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.9 | 3.65 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.23 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.4 | 2.77 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 45% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.8 | 1.90 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.9 | 2.83 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.9 | 3.01 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.41 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
