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Mendelblatt Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 20–5
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 19–6
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 16–9
4 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 14–11
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 4–21
6 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2–23

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,359 team race matches sailed before 2017-02-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 60 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.369 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.03 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of South Florida
Bulls		19.51
home +0.23		Sean Cornell / Kristen Walker 3.80
Brendan Feeney / Darby Capellin 2.66
Michael Trebilcock / Lizette Arnold 2.70		79%17–3 (85%)+1.2
2Eckerd College
Tritons		48.70
school −0.14		Jason D'Agostino / Sabine Zinserling 2.84
Andrew Schoene / Kim Kusminsky 2.75
Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 2.68		60%19–6 (76%)+3.9
3Jacksonville University
Fins		38.70
school −0.07		Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton 2.81
Ethan Lounsbury / Anna Palmer 2.96
Stephan Verhulst / Kelsy Waack 2.93		74%6–4 (60%)−1.3
4Cornell University
Big Red		29.36
school +0.19		Clark Uhl / Tara Bergstrom 3.08
Alex Woloshyn / Lindsay Gimple 2.87
Connor Kelter / Julie Barbera 3.15		76%12–8 (60%)−3.2
5Salve Regina University
Seahawks		56.58
school −0.22		Sean Beaulieu / Jennifer Ryan 2.42
Sam Shannon / Stephanie Clancy 2.45
Jennifer Killian / Madeline Lark		25%4–16 (20%)−1.0
6University of Miami
Hurricanes		65.27
school −0.17		Max Thompson / Kaitlyn Delisser 2.05
Kyle Magno / Olivia Gassner 2.28
Remi Hutchins / Andrew Scotti		6%2–23 (8%)+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Eckerd College8.709.6919–615.0+0.992.84%
1University of South Florida9.5110.0117–315.8+0.490.435%
6University of Miami5.275.592–231.5+0.320.147%
5Salve Regina University6.586.004–165.0−0.590.488%
3Jacksonville University8.707.736–47.4−0.970.994%
4Cornell University9.368.2612–815.2−1.112.699%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jason D'AgostinoEckerd College2.843.8319–615.0+0.992.84%
Andrew SchoeneEckerd College2.753.7419–615.0+0.992.84%
Karl Rasmus SayreEckerd College2.683.6719–615.0+0.992.84%
Sean CornellUniversity of South Florida3.804.2917–315.8+0.490.435%
Brendan FeeneyUniversity of South Florida2.663.1517–315.8+0.490.435%
Michael TrebilcockUniversity of South Florida2.703.1917–315.8+0.490.435%
Sean BeaulieuSalve Regina University2.421.834–165.0−0.590.488%
Sam ShannonSalve Regina University2.451.864–165.0−0.590.488%
Jennifer KillianSalve Regina University1.641.064–165.0−0.590.488%
Daniel LawlessJacksonville University2.811.846–47.4−0.970.994%
Stephan VerhulstJacksonville University2.931.966–47.4−0.970.994%
Clark UhlCornell University3.081.9712–815.2−1.112.699%
Alex WoloshynCornell University2.871.7612–815.2−1.112.699%
Connor KelterCornell University3.152.0512–815.2−1.112.699%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
12Eckerd CollegeSalve Regina University86%
13University of South FloridaCornell University53%
14Jacksonville UniversityEckerd College59%
15University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami99%
16Cornell UniversitySalve Regina University95%
17Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida26%upset
19Cornell UniversityUniversity of Miami99%
110University of South FloridaSalve Regina University95%
111Eckerd CollegeUniversity of Miami97%
113Salve Regina UniversityUniversity of Miami80%
115Eckerd CollegeCornell University31%upset
216University of MiamiSalve Regina University20%upset
218Cornell UniversityEckerd College68%
219Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Miami97%
220Cornell UniversitySalve Regina University94%
221University of South FloridaEckerd College70%
223University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami99%
224Eckerd CollegeSalve Regina University89%
225University of South FloridaCornell University54%
227Eckerd CollegeUniversity of Miami97%
228University of South FloridaSalve Regina University95%
229Cornell UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
230Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University50%
331University of South FloridaSalve Regina University95%
332Cornell UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
333Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University50%
334Salve Regina UniversityUniversity of Miami78%
335University of South FloridaEckerd College68%
337Eckerd CollegeUniversity of Miami97%
338Cornell UniversitySalve Regina University94%
340Cornell UniversityEckerd College64%
341University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami98%
343University of South FloridaCornell University54%
344Eckerd CollegeSalve Regina University90%
345Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Miami97%
446Cornell UniversityUniversity of South Florida46%upset
447Eckerd CollegeSalve Regina University90%
448Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Miami97%
449University of South FloridaSalve Regina University95%
451Eckerd CollegeUniversity of Miami97%
453Eckerd CollegeUniversity of South Florida33%upset
454Cornell UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
455Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University53%
456Salve Regina UniversityCornell University6%upset
457University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami98%
458Eckerd CollegeCornell University37%upset
460Salve Regina UniversityUniversity of Miami77%
561Eckerd CollegeCornell University37%upset
563University of MiamiSalve Regina University23%upset
564University of South FloridaCornell University54%
565Eckerd CollegeUniversity of Miami97%
567University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami98%
569Eckerd CollegeSalve Regina University90%
570Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Miami96%
571University of South FloridaEckerd College66%
572Cornell UniversitySalve Regina University94%
573Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University55%
574Cornell UniversityUniversity of Miami98%
575University of South FloridaSalve Regina University94%

Round 1

TeamRec.BullsTritonsFinsRedSeahawksHurricanes
University of South Florida Bulls4–1✕LWWWW
Eckerd College Tritons4–1W✕LWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LW✕LWW
Cornell University Big Red3–2LLW✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–4LLLL✕W
University of Miami Hurricanes0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BullsTritonsFinsRedSeahawksHurricanes
University of South Florida Bulls4–1✕WLWWW
Eckerd College Tritons3–2L✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Fins4–1WL✕WWW
Cornell University Big Red3–2LWL✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–5LLLL✕L
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BullsTritonsFinsRedSeahawksHurricanes
University of South Florida Bulls5–0✕WWWWW
Eckerd College Tritons3–2L✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LL✕WWW
Cornell University Big Red3–2LWL✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–4LLLL✕W
University of Miami Hurricanes0–5LLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BullsTritonsFinsRedSeahawksHurricanes
University of South Florida Bulls2–3✕LLLWW
Eckerd College Tritons5–0W✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins4–1WL✕WWW
Cornell University Big Red2–3WLL✕LW
Salve Regina University Seahawks2–3LLLW✕W
University of Miami Hurricanes0–5LLLLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.BullsTritonsFinsRedSeahawksHurricanes
University of South Florida Bulls5–0✕WWWWW
Eckerd College Tritons4–1L✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–3LL✕LWW
Cornell University Big Red3–2LLW✕WW
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–5LLLL✕L
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
2 Eckerd College Tritons 1-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-6
3 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-5-6
4 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
5 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
6 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
7 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
8 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
9 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
10 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
11 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
12 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
13 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-3-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-6
14 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
15 Eckerd College Tritons 2-3-4 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-5-6
16 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
17 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
18 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
19 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
20 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
21 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
22 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-6
23 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
24 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
25 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-6
26 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
27 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
28 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
29 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
30 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
31 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
32 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
33 Eckerd College Tritons 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
34 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-3-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-5
35 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 2-4-5
36 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-5-6
37 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
38 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-6
39 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
40 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6
41 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
42 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
43 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-6
44 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
45 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
46 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
47 Eckerd College Tritons 2-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-5-6
48 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-5-6
49 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-5-6
50 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-6
51 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
52 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
53 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
54 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
55 Eckerd College Tritons 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
56 Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-3-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-4-6
57 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
58 Eckerd College Tritons 2-3-4 def. Cornell University Big Red 1-5-6
59 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
60 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-4-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-6
61 Eckerd College Tritons 1-4-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 2-3-6
62 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
63 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-4-5
64 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Cornell University Big Red 3-4-6
65 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
66 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
67 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
68 Cornell University Big Red 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
69 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
70 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-5-6
71 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 2-4-5
72 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
73 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
74 Cornell University Big Red 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
75 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From W (275°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1013.6 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →