University of Miami '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84 (fleet 2.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–64 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–21 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–27 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 4–64 against 3.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.19 | -0.81 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.36 | 3.00 | 2–17 | 1.2 | +0.64 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2017-04-08 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.44 | -0.56 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2017-02-25 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 2.60 | 2–23 | 1.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.55 | -1.45 | 0–16 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 4 | 0% | — |
| SAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 2.40 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 2.52 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 10% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.26 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.0 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.2 | 2.04 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 1.44 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.29 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.8 | 2.83 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 1.31 |
| SAISA Coed Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.5 | 3.11 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 25 | 8% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.7 | 2.75 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.5 | 3.14 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.6 | 2.31 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 1.74 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 1.75 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | 2.63 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 2.02 |
| SAISA Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 2.06 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | 2.38 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 16.3 | 0.87 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 2.07 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 2.67 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 1.95 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.4 | 1.04 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Kyle Magno |  American University |
'18 |
| ISSA | Kyle Magno |  Christian Brothers Academy |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
