| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 1–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,154 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 17 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.266 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.70 ± 0.46: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 10.54 school +0.34 | Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.07 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.44 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.68 | 86% | 7–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 3 | 9.18 school +0.12 | Andrew Baird / Preston Senior 2.97 Sean Cornell / Rachel Daye 3.43 Brendan Feeney / John Monahan 2.65 | 54% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Eckerd College Tritons | 2 | 9.22 school +0.10, home +0.41 | Samuel Shannon / Kim Kusminsky 2.35 Andrew Schoene / Jean Crotty 3.19 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Sabine Zinserling 3.15 | 55% | 4–4 (50%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | Jacksonville University Fins | 4 | 8.08 | Stephan Verhulst / Ben Mckissick-Hawley 2.51 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Telmo Basterra 2.98 Andre Guaragna / Kelsy Waack 2.52 | 29% | 1–6 (14%) | −1.0 |
| 5 | University of Miami Hurricanes | 5 | 5.99 school −0.16 | Max Thompson / Kaitlyn Delisser 2.20 Kyle Magno / Olivia Gassner 2.19 Andrew Scotti / Alex Sidi 1.74 | 5% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston | 10.54 | 13.54 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 33% |
| 2 | University of South Florida | 9.18 | 9.63 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 3 | Eckerd College | 9.22 | 8.93 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 4 | Jacksonville University | 8.08 | 6.67 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.41 | 0.9 | 97% |
| 5 | University of Miami | 5.99 | 2.99 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | College of Charleston | 3.44 | 6.44 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 33% |
| Stefano Peschiera | College of Charleston | 3.68 | 6.68 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 33% |
| Andrew Baird | University of South Florida | 2.97 | 3.42 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Sean Cornell | University of South Florida | 3.43 | 3.87 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Brendan Feeney | University of South Florida | 2.65 | 3.10 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Samuel Shannon | Eckerd College | 2.35 | 2.06 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Andrew Schoene | Eckerd College | 3.19 | 2.90 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | Eckerd College | 3.15 | 2.86 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Stephan Verhulst | Jacksonville University | 2.51 | 1.10 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.41 | 0.9 | 97% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | Jacksonville University | 2.98 | 1.58 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.41 | 0.9 | 97% |
| Andre Guaragna | Jacksonville University | 2.52 | 1.11 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.41 | 0.9 | 97% |
| Andrew Scotti | University of Miami | 1.74 | -1.26 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | Fins | Hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | Fins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18 |
Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Sean Cornell '18 |
Preston Senior '19 John Monahan '20 Rachel Daye '18 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Andrew Schoene '18 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Samuel Shannon '19 |
Jean Crotty '18 Sabine Zinserling '20 Kim Kusminsky '19 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19 |
Telmo Basterra '21 Kelsy Waack '18 Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20 |
|
University of Miami | Hurricanes | Andrew Scotti '20 Kyle Magno '18 Max Thompson '19 |
Alex Sidi '21 Olivia Gassner '18 Kaitlyn Delisser '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
