Eckerd College '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 (fleet 2.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–16 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 15–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 15–16 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.35 | 2.06 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 2.70 | 2–2 | 1.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 2.62 | 9–10 | 7.2 | +0.54 | 0.7 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 2.64 |
| SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 1.99 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| SAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 2.88 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 4.14 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.8 | 2.56 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.3 | 2.79 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 3.73 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.8 | 1.92 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.4 | 2.32 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 3.03 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
