Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/03/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	15–4
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	15–4
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–5
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	8–11
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–8
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	9–10
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–13
8	Jacksonville University	Fins	5–14
9	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,566 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 84 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.475 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.21: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.97 school +0.16	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.59 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.62 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.56	73%	15–4 (79%)	+1.2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.21 school +0.52	Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.83 Christophe Killian / Annabel Carrington 3.16 13–3 Augie Dale / Carter Cameron 3.65 9–2 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.69 6–2 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.22 2–1	77%	15–4 (79%)	+0.3
3	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.00 school +0.22	Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.54 10–4 Shawn Harvey / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.32 9–2 Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.04 6–4 Nicolas Hernandez / Graceann Nicolosi 3.40 8–1 Nicolas Hernandez / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.34 3–3 Nicholas Baird / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.87 4–1 Shawn Harvey / Nicholas Baird 3.36 2–0	75%	14–5 (74%)	−0.3
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	10.22	Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.74 Jack Marshall / Carolyn Dahl 3.40 Andrew Person / Grace Hanrahan 3.03	59%	8–11 (42%)	−3.2
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	9.10 school +0.53	Bradley Adam / Kate Bjerregaard 3.30 Lewis Cooper / Sophia Taczak 2.90 Joshua Paper / Allison Gingerich 2.22	45%	11–8 (58%)	+2.4
6	Eckerd College Tritons	7	8.77 school +0.07	Andrew Schoene / Daniel Vail 3.31 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Sabine Zinserling 3.22 7–10 Samuel Shannon / Caroline Puckette 3–8 Samuel Shannon / Jean Crotty 6–2 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Caroline Puckette 3.08 2–0	38%	9–10 (47%)	+1.8
7	University of South Florida Bulls	6	8.88 school +0.14	Michael Sanandajian / Rachel Daye 2.68 Brendan Feeney / Mandi Dickie 2.89 Andrew Baird / John Monahan 3.06	41%	6–13 (32%)	−1.8
8	Jacksonville University Fins	8	8.23	Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Ben Mckissick-Hawley 2.98 Telmo Basterra / Nathan Ikeda 2.60 3–7 Andre Guaragna / Kelsy Waack 2.51 3–7 Stephan Verhulst / Nathan Ikeda 2.53 1–5 Andre Guaragna / Telmo Basterra 2.48 1–5 Stephan Verhulst / Kelsy Waack 2.56 1–2 Andre Guaragna / Gigi Arias 2.50 1–2	28%	5–14 (26%)	−0.4
9	University of Wisconsin Badgers	9	6.44 school −0.11	Charles Bocklet / Thomas Kelly 2.49 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.17 Noah Janssen / Peter Sauer 1.81	6%	1–15 (6%)	+0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.10	9.86	11–8	8.6	+0.75	1.3	14%
6	Eckerd College	8.77	9.31	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	24%
1	Roger Williams University	10.97	11.39	15–4	13.8	+0.42	0.3	36%
9	University of Wisconsin	6.44	6.57	1–15	0.9	+0.13	0.0	61%
2	College of Charleston	11.21	11.32	15–4	14.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
3	Yale University	11.00	10.89	14–5	14.3	−0.11	0.0	70%
8	Jacksonville University	8.23	8.10	5–14	5.4	−0.14	0.0	69%
7	University of South Florida	8.88	8.31	6–13	7.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
4	Georgetown University	10.22	9.19	8–11	11.2	−1.04	2.4	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.30	4.05	11–8	8.6	+0.75	1.3	14%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.90	3.66	11–8	8.6	+0.75	1.3	14%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.22	2.98	11–8	8.6	+0.75	1.3	14%
Samuel Shannon	Eckerd College	2.07	2.62	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	24%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.31	3.85	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	24%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.22	3.76	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	24%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.53	3.05	2–7	1.4	+0.52	0.3	41%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.59	4.02	15–4	13.8	+0.42	0.3	36%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.56	3.98	15–4	13.8	+0.42	0.3	36%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	2.49	2.62	1–15	0.9	+0.13	0.0	61%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.17	2.30	1–15	0.9	+0.13	0.0	61%
Noah Janssen	University of Wisconsin	1.81	1.94	1–15	0.9	+0.13	0.0	61%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.83	3.94	15–4	14.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.65	3.76	15–4	14.7	+0.11	0.0	56%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	2.98	2.85	5–14	5.4	−0.14	0.0	69%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.51	2.37	5–14	5.4	−0.14	0.0	69%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.04	3.85	10–5	10.5	−0.19	0.1	74%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.89	2.32	6–13	7.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	3.06	2.49	6–13	7.8	−0.57	0.7	90%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.74	2.70	8–11	11.2	−1.04	2.4	98%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.40	2.36	8–11	11.2	−1.04	2.4	98%
Andrew Person	Georgetown University	3.03	1.99	8–11	11.2	−1.04	2.4	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	95%
1	2	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	3	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	44%	upset
1	4	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	5	Yale University	Jacksonville University	92%
1	6	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	68%
1	7	Eckerd College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
1	8	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	92%
1	9	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	10	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	89%
1	11	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	91%
1	12	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	90%
1	13	University of Wisconsin	University of South Florida	8%	upset
1	14	Yale University	Georgetown University	65%
1	15	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	63%
1	16	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	93%
1	18	University of South Florida	Yale University	12%	upset
1	19	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	81%
1	20	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	95%
1	21	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	55%
1	23	Yale University	Eckerd College	92%
1	24	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	27%	upset
1	25	Jacksonville University	University of Wisconsin	86%
1	26	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	89%
1	27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	11%	upset
1	28	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	92%
1	29	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	30	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	65%
1	31	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	87%
1	32	College of Charleston	Yale University	52%
1	33	Eckerd College	University of Wisconsin	90%
1	34	University of South Florida	Georgetown University	21%	upset
1	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	71%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Yale University	44%	upset
2	37	Roger Williams University	Jacksonville University	94%
2	38	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
2	39	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	48%	upset
2	40	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	41	Yale University	Jacksonville University	92%
2	42	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	68%
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	58%
2	44	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	91%
2	45	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	98%
2	46	Jacksonville University	Georgetown University	12%	upset
2	47	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	90%
2	48	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
2	49	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	92%
2	50	Yale University	Georgetown University	66%
2	51	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	63%
2	52	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	44%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	93%
2	54	Yale University	University of South Florida	88%
2	55	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	80%
2	56	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	95%
2	57	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	56%
2	59	Yale University	Eckerd College	91%
2	60	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	73%
2	61	Jacksonville University	University of Wisconsin	86%
2	62	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	89%
2	63	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
2	64	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	91%
2	65	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	98%
2	66	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	36%	upset
2	67	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	14%	upset
2	68	College of Charleston	Yale University	51%
2	69	Eckerd College	University of Wisconsin	90%
2	70	University of South Florida	Georgetown University	21%	upset
2	71	Jacksonville University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	28%	upset
2	72	Yale University	Roger Williams University	57%
4	73	Yale University	College of Charleston	49%	upset
4	74	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	68%
4	75	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	73%
4	76	Yale University	Roger Williams University	57%
4	77	Yale University	Georgetown University	67%
4	78	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	55%
4	79	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	48%	upset
4	80	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	71%
4	81	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	63%
4	82	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	56%
4	83	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	64%
4	84	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	58%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Seahawks	Tritons	Bulls	Fins	Badgers
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L
Jacksonville University Fins	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Seahawks	Tritons	Bulls	Fins	Badgers
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	7–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	W	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Seahawks	Tritons	Bulls	Fins
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	✕	L	L	W	–	–	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	W	✕	L	W	–	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	W	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	0–3	L	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
Jacksonville University Fins	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
3	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
4	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
6	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
7	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
8	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
11	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
12	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
13	Badgers	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
14	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
15	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
16	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
18	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
20	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
21	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
23	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
25	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
27	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
28	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
30	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
33	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
34	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
35	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Fins	2-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
37	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
38	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
39	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
40	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
41	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
42	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
44	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
46	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
49	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
51	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
52	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
55	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
56	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
57	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
58	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
59	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
61	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
62	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
64	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
65	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
66	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
67	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
68	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
69	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
70	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
71	Fins	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
72	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
73	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
74	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
75	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
78	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6 DSQ
79	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
80	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
81	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
82	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
83	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
84	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18	Carter Cameron '19 Katherine Lounsbury '20 Annabel Carrington '19 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Nicholas Baird '19
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andrew Person '21 Andy Reiter '19 Jack Marshall '18	Grace Hanrahan '18 Claire Mohun '19 Carolyn Dahl '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Joshua Paper '20 Lewis Cooper '21	Kate Bjerregaard '19 Allison Gingerich '21 Sophia Taczak '21
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Samuel Shannon '19	Daniel Vail '21 Sabine Zinserling '20 Caroline Puckette '20 Jean Crotty '18
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Michael Sanandajian '18	John Monahan '20 Mandi Dickie '18 Rachel Daye '18
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19 Telmo Basterra '21	Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20 Telmo Basterra '21 Gigi Arias '21 Kelsy Waack '18 Nathan Ikeda '21
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '18 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Noah Janssen '19	Thomas Kelly '20 Olivia Staruck '20 Peter Sauer '20

Conditions — 03/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 32% · Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.9 kn

avg · max 15.8 kn

Gusts to 28.8 kn

From NNW (343°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity32% Pressure1020.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

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