Yale University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.86 (fleet 3.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 137–40 (77%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 80–21 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 43–15 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 14–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (177 matches) the record is 137–40 against 135.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.46 | 4.16 | 21–4 | 18.4 | +0.70 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.68 | 3.44 | 14–4 | 14.7 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.67 | 1.59 | 6–8 | 11.8 | −2.08 | 9.6 | >99% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.67 | 3.48 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.59 | 4.44 | 14–1 | 13.0 | +0.85 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.56 | 4.15 | 17–2 | 15.8 | +0.59 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.41 | 4.01 | 17–6 | 14.3 | +0.60 | 1.1 | 16% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.43 | 3.79 | 6–2 | 5.5 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.50 | 9–3 | 8.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.40 | 3.52 | 11–4 | 10.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 3.47 | 3.42 | 14–4 | 14.2 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 84% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 4.10 |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 90% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.3 | 3.37 |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.3 | 3.92 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.7 | 4.43 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.6 | 4.34 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.4 | 4.30 |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 5.07 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.4 | 4.59 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.0 | 4.66 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.0 | 4.08 |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 24 | 75% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 74% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.1 | 4.16 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 4.20 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 3.5 | 4.12 |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | 3.07 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 3.83 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 3.77 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 1 | 10.0 | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 5.44 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.1 | 4.38 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.9 | 4.34 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 4.52 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.8 | 4.21 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 2.8 | — |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.8 | 3.40 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.1 | 4.01 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 6.4 | 3.82 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 5.0 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 3.36 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 3.69 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.6 | 3.94 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 2.9 | 4.53 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 3.49 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nick Hernandez |  Pine View School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
