NEISA Team Race Championship

HostConnecticut College
Date04/06/2019
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	12–6
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–6
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11–7
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–8
6	Brown University	Bears	9–9
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–9
8	Connecticut College	Camels	6–12
9	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–6
10	Harvard University	Crimson	4–7
11	University of Rhode Island	Rams	1–10
12	Boston University	Terriers	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 91 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.575 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 74% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.08 school +0.20	Nicholas Baird / Kira Woods 4.39 Nicolas Hernandez / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.68 Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.79	81%	14–4 (78%)	−0.7
2	Boston College Eagles	4	10.88 school +0.17	Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.55 Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.98 11–6 Thomas Walden / Caroline Downey 3.19 9–4 Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 3.15 3–2 Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.78 1–0	55%	12–6 (67%)	+2.2
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	11.03 school +0.25	Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 4.04 Jack Mcgraw / Paige Clarke 3.40 Timothy Greenhouse / Eloise Burn 3.30	58%	12–5 (71%)	+2.2
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	10.80 school +0.23	Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 4.04 Matt Safford / Julia Adams 3.09 Christian Filter / Marie Bergsund 3.42 10–6 Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 3.42 1–1	53%	11–7 (61%)	+1.5
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	10.58 school +0.20	Conner Harding / Jennifer Agell 3.95 Daniel Petrovic / Emily Gildea 3.17 Spencer Cartwright / Hallie Repeta 3.23	47%	10–8 (56%)	+1.6
6	Brown University Bears	3	10.98 school +0.21	Patrick Shanahan / Julia Reynolds 3.78 Ragna Agerup / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.46 Hannah Steadman / Emily Ito 3.51 8–8 Hannah Steadman / Maxine De Havenon 3.38 1–1	58%	9–9 (50%)	−1.4
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	10.35 school −0.07	Trevor Long / Kaila Pfrang 3.84 Ivan Shestopalov / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.24 8–8 Emily Haig / Julia Cho 3.34 8–6 Emily Haig / Alex Abate 3.24 1–3 Ivan Shestopalov / Alex Abate 3.17 1–1	41%	9–9 (50%)	+1.5
8	Connecticut College Camels	11	10.25 school +0.28, home +0.39	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.67 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger	38%	6–11 (35%)	−0.5
9	Tufts University Jumbos	9	10.18 school +0.14	Jackson Mccoy / Emma Clutterbuck 3.42 Christopher Keller / Juliana Testa 3.29 Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 3.31	41%	3–5 (38%)	−0.3
10	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.49	Eli Burnes / Lena Episalla 3.60 Henry Burnes / Catherine Tang 3.65 Nicholas Karnovsky / Jessica Williams 3.25	47%	3–7 (30%)	−1.7
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	12	9.01 school −0.30	Brendan Read / Lauren Richards 3.18 Dakota Northrup / Caroline Rocchio 3.26 Luke Ingalls / Caitlin Abel 2.98 1–5 Aidan Naughton / Taylor Borges 2.71 0–5	18%	1–10 (9%)	−0.9
12	Boston University Terriers	10	10.18 school −0.11	Javier De Urdanibia Panos / Lexi Pline 3.31 0–10 Robby Gearon / Carly Berry 3.44 1–7 Sam Morrell / Katherine Bertolini 3.50 0–7 Maia Agerup / Carly Berry 3.53 0–3 Maia Agerup / Katherine Bertolini 3.53 0–2 Sam Morrell / Emily Walker 3.37 1–1 Maia Agerup / Charles Honke 3.54 1–0	41%	1–10 (9%)	−3.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Dartmouth College	11.03	11.64	12–5	9.8	+0.61	0.9	20%
2	Boston College	10.88	11.44	12–6	9.8	+0.56	0.9	20%
5	Roger Williams University	10.58	10.96	10–8	8.4	+0.38	0.4	30%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.35	10.73	9–9	7.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
4	Bowdoin College	10.80	11.18	11–7	9.5	+0.38	0.4	31%
8	Connecticut College	10.25	10.11	6–11	6.5	−0.14	0.1	70%
9	Tufts University	10.18	10.00	3–5	3.3	−0.19	0.0	73%
1	Yale University	12.08	11.85	14–4	14.7	−0.23	0.1	77%
6	Brown University	10.98	10.65	9–9	10.4	−0.33	0.3	82%
11	University of Rhode Island	9.01	8.24	1–10	1.9	−0.77	0.5	88%
10	Harvard University	10.49	9.68	3–7	4.7	−0.81	1.0	93%
12	Boston University	10.18	8.09	1–10	4.5	−2.08	4.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Timothy Greenhouse	Dartmouth College	3.30	3.92	12–5	9.8	+0.61	0.9	20%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.98	4.54	12–6	9.8	+0.56	0.9	20%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.95	4.33	10–8	8.4	+0.38	0.4	30%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.23	3.62	10–8	8.4	+0.38	0.4	30%
Ivan Shestopalov	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.24	3.62	9–9	7.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.84	4.22	9–9	7.5	+0.38	0.4	30%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	3.15	3.49	3–2	2.6	+0.34	0.1	53%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.80	2.66	6–11	6.5	−0.14	0.1	70%
Cj Mckenna	Connecticut College	2.67	2.52	6–11	6.5	−0.14	0.1	70%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	3.29	3.11	3–5	3.3	−0.19	0.0	73%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.39	4.16	14–4	14.7	−0.23	0.1	77%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.60	2.79	3–7	4.7	−0.81	1.0	93%
Aidan Naughton	University of Rhode Island	2.71	-0.29	0–5	0.9	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%
Javier De Urdanibia Panos	Boston University	3.31	0.31	0–10	4.0	≤−3.00	7.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	72%
1	2	Harvard University	Brown University	38%	upset
1	3	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
1	4	Roger Williams University	Boston University	60%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	65%
1	6	Boston College	Yale University	24%	upset
1	7	Brown University	Connecticut College	73%
1	8	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	9	Harvard University	Boston University	59%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	39%	upset
1	11	Yale University	Roger Williams University	82%
1	12	Boston College	Tufts University	67%
1	13	Dartmouth College	Brown University	51%
1	14	Connecticut College	Boston University	47%	upset
1	15	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	16	Yale University	Harvard University	83%
1	17	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	48%	upset
1	18	Boston College	Roger Williams University	58%
1	19	Dartmouth College	Boston University	70%
1	20	Brown University	Bowdoin College	55%
1	21	Yale University	Connecticut College	88%
1	22	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	79%
1	23	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	52%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	37%	upset
1	25	Bowdoin College	Boston University	66%
1	26	Dartmouth College	Yale University	26%	upset
1	27	Brown University	Tufts University	69%
1	28	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	82%
1	30	Boston College	Harvard University	60%
1	31	Yale University	Bowdoin College	78%
1	32	Tufts University	Boston University	51%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	39%	upset
1	34	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
1	35	Connecticut College	Harvard University	43%	upset
1	36	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	37	Yale University	Tufts University	87%
1	38	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	55%
1	39	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	63%
1	41	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	86%
1	42	Connecticut College	Boston College	34%	upset
1	43	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	59%
1	44	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	86%
1	45	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	57%
1	46	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	27%	upset
1	47	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	68%
1	48	Brown University	Boston College	52%
1	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	51	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	52	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
1	53	Brown University	Boston University	68%
1	54	Boston College	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
1	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	47%	upset
1	56	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	81%
1	58	Yale University	Brown University	75%
1	59	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
1	60	Boston College	Boston University	65%
1	61	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	79%
1	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	51%
1	63	Roger Williams University	Brown University	40%	upset
1	65	Yale University	Boston University	88%
1	66	Bowdoin College	Boston College	49%	upset
2	67	Dartmouth College	Boston College	54%
2	68	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	60%
2	69	Brown University	Connecticut College	66%
2	70	Yale University	Roger Williams University	82%
2	71	Boston College	Bowdoin College	51%
2	72	Brown University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	73	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	55%
2	74	Yale University	Connecticut College	85%
2	75	Bowdoin College	Brown University	45%	upset
2	76	Boston College	Roger Williams University	58%
2	77	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	66%
2	78	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	15%	upset
2	79	Roger Williams University	Brown University	40%	upset
2	80	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	60%
2	81	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
2	82	Yale University	Dartmouth College	74%
2	83	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	54%
2	84	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	36%	upset
2	85	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	56%
2	86	Yale University	Boston College	76%
2	87	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	49%	upset
2	88	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	61%
2	89	Boston College	Brown University	48%	upset
2	90	Bowdoin College	Yale University	22%	upset
2	91	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
2	92	Boston College	Connecticut College	62%
2	93	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	45%	upset
2	94	Yale University	Brown University	75%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Green	Bears	Hawks	Bears	Engineers	Camels	Jumbos	Crimson	Rams	Terriers
Yale University Bulldogs	9–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–4	W	✕	W	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–4	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–4	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–5	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–5	L	W	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L
Connecticut College Camels	6–5	L	W	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Green	Bears	Hawks	Bears	Engineers	Camels
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–4	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
2	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
3	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
4	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
6	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
7	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
8	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
9	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
10	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
12	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
13	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
14	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
17	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
18	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
19	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
20	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
22	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
24	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
25	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
26	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
28	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
29	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
30	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
32	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
34	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
35	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
37	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
38	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
39	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
40	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
41	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
42	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
44	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
45	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
46	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
47	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
48	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
49	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
50	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
52	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
54	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
55	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
56	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
57	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
59	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
60	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
61	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
62	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
63	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
64	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
65	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
66	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
67	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
68	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
69	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
70	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
71	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
72	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
73	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
75	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
76	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
77	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
78	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
79	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
80	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
81	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
82	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
83	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
84	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6 DNF
85	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
86	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
87	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
88	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
89	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
90	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
91	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
92	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
93	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
94	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Kira Woods '19 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20
Boston College	Eagles	Isabella Loosbrock '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Thomas Walden '20 Wade Waddell '19	Emma Perry '19 Tara Ferraris '19 Caroline Downey '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Jack Mcgraw '20 Timothy Greenhouse '21	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Paige Clarke '20 Eloise Burn '21
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19	Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20 Julia Adams '21 Louisa Lindgren '19
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Daniel Petrovic '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Jennifer Agell '19 Emily Gildea '21 Hallie Repeta '19
Brown University	Bears	Hannah Steadman '20 Patrick Shanahan '19 Ragna Agerup '20	Emily Ito '19 Maxine De Havenon '19 Julia Reynolds '22 Madeleine Mcgrath '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Emily Haig '21 Ivan Shestopalov '21 Trevor Long '19	Julia Cho '20 Alex Abate '22 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Kaila Pfrang '21
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '22 Thomas Whittemore '22	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Paige Dunlevy '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Christopher Keller '19 Jackson Mccoy '19	Ian Morgan '19 Juliana Testa '21 Emma Clutterbuck '20
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Henry Burnes '22 Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Lena Episalla '19 Catherine Tang '19 Jessica Williams '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Aidan Naughton '22 Brendan Read '19 Dakota Northrup '19 Luke Ingalls '21	Taylor Borges '22 Lauren Richards '19 Caroline Rocchio '20 Caitlin Abel '21
Boston University	Terriers	Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 Maia Agerup '20 Robby Gearon '19 Sam Morrell '21	Lexi Pline '19 Katherine Bertolini '21 Carly Berry '21 Charles Honke '20 Emily Walker '19

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.7 kn

avg · max 7.3 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From WNW (286°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1020.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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