Roger Williams University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 61.54 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.78 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 42 | Fall 2017 |
| Keelboat | 1.48 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Spring 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 84–63 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 6 | 47–30 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 23–14 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 3 | 9–9 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 5–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (147 matches) the record is 84–63 against 80.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.17 | 3.56 | 10–8 | 8.4 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.18 | 2.82 | 6–8 | 7.1 | −0.35 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.15 | 4.04 | 7–3 | 5.4 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.09 | 3.05 | 9–6 | 9.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 1.75 | 9–5 | 11.8 | −1.38 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 6.08 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 36% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 2.93 | 11–5 | 10.2 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 1.91 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.62 | 5.09 | 6–1 | 3.1 | +2.47 | 4.6 | 2% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 1.46 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.29 | 0.8 | 96% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.61 | 5.61 | 6–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 1.74 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −0.88 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 2.14 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.1 | 4.02 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 3.34 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 3.47 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 14.3 | 2.45 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.5 | 2.88 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.3 | 3.21 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 3.3 | 3.53 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| NEISA J70 Two-Day Invite Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.8 | 1.65 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Men Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.6 | 2.68 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.5 | 2.66 |
| McMillan Cup at Navy Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 7.3 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.1 | 2.41 |
| NEISA Sportboat Invitational #1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.0 | 0.09 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 3.35 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 3.28 |
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 7.9 | — |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.4 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.5 | 3.02 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Daniel Petrovic |  Antilles School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
