NEISA Men Singles

HostConnecticut College
Date09/24/2016
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	44
2	Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	90
3	Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	92
4	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	94
5	Roger Williams University	Martim Anderson '18	98
6	Dartmouth College	Erik Weis '18	102
7	Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	104
8	Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	105
9	Tufts University	James Beatty '17	109
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Paul Didham '20	133
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	134
12	Roger Williams University	Conner Harding '19	163
13	Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	180
14	Roger Williams University	Daniel Petrovic '19	190
15	Roger Williams University	Preston Duclos '19	205
16	Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	214
17	Tufts University	Jack Bitney '19	216
18	Connecticut College	Phillip Rosenthall '18	228
19	Boston University	Charles Welsh '18	232
20	University of Vermont	Charles Hicks '20	249
21	Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	254
22	University of Vermont	Arthur Milot '19	300
23	University of New Hampshire	River Iannaccone '19	312

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	8	3	1	1	4	1	3	3	10	1	BKD	1	3	2	44
Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	15	2	9	8	9	4	7	8	5	4	2	2	4	11	90
Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	5	10	6	2	1	8	2	4	4	8	8	7	12	15	92
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	9	9	5	5	5	7	6	1	12	7	4	4	13	7	94
Roger Williams University	Martim Anderson '18	1	1	3	16	11	10	10	10	1	5	6	6	2	16	98
Dartmouth College	Erik Weis '18	11	6	13	15	7	3	1	6	3	9	11	5	6	6	102
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	3	8	10	12	3	17	4	5	7	11	3	16	1	4	104
Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	6	12	4	4	8	5	8	7	9	3	9	8	8	14	105
Tufts University	James Beatty '17	13	13	2	3	19	18	9	2	2	6	1	3	17	1	109
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Paul Didham '20	21	4	8	9	2	2	5	18	8	15	5	17	16	3	133
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	4	7	12	6	6	9	12	15	16	10	10	12	10	5	134
Roger Williams University	Conner Harding '19	7	5	19	18	13	6	11	13	11	14	14	19	5	8	163
Harvard University	Andrew Puopolo '19	2	16	7	11	10	13	14	12	6	21	16	11	DNF	17	180
Roger Williams University	Daniel Petrovic '19	18	11	14	20	15	11	18	9	13	2	17	13	20	9	190
Roger Williams University	Preston Duclos '19	14	14	15	19	17	12	20	14	17	12	13	9	9	20	205
Boston University	Collin Alexander '20	12	19	11	13	16	23	15	20	18	16	12	20	7	12	214
Tufts University	Jack Bitney '19	10	18	20	14	14	16	16	11	19	17	18	10	14	19	216
Connecticut College	Phillip Rosenthall '18	17	15	17	10	12	20	19	17	15	18	15	15	15	23	228
Boston University	Charles Welsh '18	23	17	18	17	21	19	17	21	14	20	7	14	11	13	232
University of Vermont	Charles Hicks '20	16	20	16	7	18	21	21	19	20	13	19	23	18	18	249
Brown University	Gabriel Hannon '20	20	21	21	21	20	14	13	16	21	19	21	18	19	10	254
University of Vermont	Arthur Milot '19	19	22	22	22	22	15	22	22	23	23	DNF	22	21	21	300
University of New Hampshire	River Iannaccone '19	22	23	23	DNS	23	22	23	23	22	22	20	21	22	22	312

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 23 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Alp Rodopman '17	Tufts University Jumbos 1	14/14	3.21	5.24	+2.03	85th → 99th	13.0	6%	4.6 / 9.3
2	Nicholas Baird '19	Yale University Bulldogs 2	14/14	3.46	3.83	+0.37	90th → 94th	0.7	21%	6.4 / 8.5
3	Malcolm Lamphere '18	Yale University Bulldogs 1	14/14	3.09	3.81	+0.72	83rd → 94th	2.5	11%	6.6 / 9.6
4	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College	14/14	2.88	3.83	+0.95	78th → 94th	4.1	7%	6.7 / 10.4
5	Martim Anderson '18	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	14/14	3.10	3.58	+0.47	84th → 92nd	1.1	20%	7.0 / 9.7
6	Erik Weis '18	Dartmouth College	14/14	2.76	3.63	+0.87	74th → 92nd	3.5	16%	7.3 / 10.6
7	Patrick Shanahan '19	Brown University Bears 1	14/14	3.14	3.43	+0.29	84th → 89th	0.4	21%	7.4 / 9.4
8	Ian Barrows '17	Yale University Bulldogs 3	14/14	3.64	3.59	−0.05	93rd → 92nd	0.0	48%	7.5 / 8.0
9	James Beatty '17	Tufts University Jumbos 2	14/14	2.72	3.06	+0.33	72nd → 83rd	0.6	18%	7.8 / 10.8
10	Paul Didham '20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	14/14	2.61	2.68	+0.07	68th → 71st	0.0	30%	9.5 / 11.3
11	Andrew Widmeier '20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	14/14	2.33	3.10	+0.77	60th → 84th	2.9	16%	9.6 / 12.2
12	Conner Harding '19	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	14/14	2.82	2.48	−0.34	77th → 62nd	0.7	66%	11.6 / 10.5
13	Andrew Puopolo '19	Harvard University	14/14	2.19	2.40	+0.21	57th → 61st	0.2	54%	12.9 / 12.5
14	Daniel Petrovic '19	Roger Williams University Hawks 4	14/14	2.12	2.03	−0.09	56th → 53rd	0.0	59%	13.6 / 12.8
15	Preston Duclos '19	Roger Williams University Hawks 3	14/14	2.25	1.99	−0.25	59th → 51st	0.4	76%	14.6 / 12.4
16	Collin Alexander '20	Boston University Terriers 2	14/14	2.17	1.66	−0.52	57th → 41st	1.5	79%	15.3 / 12.7
17	Jack Bitney '19	Tufts University Jumbos 3	14/14	2.54	1.81	−0.73	66th → 44th	3.5	89%	15.4 / 11.4
18	Phillip Rosenthall '18	Connecticut College	14/14	0.80	1.65	+0.85	18th → 41st	3.1	38%	16.3 / 16.9
19	Charles Welsh '18	Boston University Terriers 1	14/14	2.30	1.35	−0.96	60th → 31st	5.6	92%	16.6 / 12.1
20	Charles Hicks '20	University of Vermont Catamounts 1	14/14	1.69	1.12	−0.58	42nd → 25th	1.9	88%	17.8 / 14.2
21	Gabriel Hannon '20	Brown University Bears 2	14/14	1.28	1.02	−0.27	30th → 23rd	0.4	86%	18.1 / 15.6
22	Arthur Milot '19	University of Vermont Catamounts 2	14/14	0.65	-0.12	−0.76	17th → 5th	2.5	97%	21.4 / 17.2
23	River Iannaccone '19	University of New Hampshire	14/14	0.33	-0.66	−0.99	11th → 2nd	3.5	99%	22.3 / 18.0

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From N (360°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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