| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 15–1 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 11–5 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 8–8 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 4–12 |
| 5 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 5–8 |
| 6 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 2–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,872 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.482 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.18 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 64% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 6.61 | 7.78 | 8–8 | 4.4 | +1.17 | 3.2 | 3% |
| 1 | Tufts University | 9.02 | 10.07 | 15–1 | 13.5 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 26% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University | 8.07 | 8.35 | 11–5 | 10.2 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 5 | Dartmouth College | 6.91 | 6.48 | 5–8 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 6 | Northeastern University | 6.06 | 5.54 | 2–11 | 3.0 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 4 | Brown University | 7.48 | 6.18 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Widmeier | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.35 | 3.52 | 8–8 | 4.4 | +1.17 | 3.2 | 3% |
| Gage Schoenherr | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 2.38 | 3.56 | 8–8 | 4.4 | +1.17 | 3.2 | 3% |
| Samuel Shea | Tufts University | 2.50 | 3.55 | 15–1 | 13.5 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 26% |
| Max Clapp | Dartmouth College | 2.66 | 2.23 | 5–8 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Carolyn Corbet | Northeastern University | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2–11 | 3.0 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Nathan Housberg | Brown University | 2.19 | 0.89 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| Sophie Hibben | Brown University | 2.38 | 1.08 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| Franco Bilik | Brown University | 2.68 | 1.38 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Hawks | Bears | Bears | Green | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L |
| Brown University Bears | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 2–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Hawks | Bears | Bears | Green | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 3–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–7 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Hawks | Bears | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–3 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–3 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Brown University Bears | 0–6 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Big Green | 1-4-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 DSQ |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Huskies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Huskies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 | def. | |
Bears | 1-3-4 DSQ |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Jack Bitney '19 Jackson Mccoy '19 Samuel Shea '19 |
Lara Dienemann '18 Emily Calandrella '20 Juliana Testa '21 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Daniel Petrovic '19 Kelsey Shakin '19 Peter Neal '20 |
Hallie Repeta '19 Megan Roach '18 Rachel Holick '22 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Andrew Widmeier '20 Gage Schoenherr '21 Liam Ballantyne '19 |
Philip Whittlesey '20 Walter Gnann '21 Erin Morgan '18 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Franco Bilik '18 Nathan Housberg '19 Sophie Hibben '19 |
Sawyer Balint '20 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Grace Gagnon '18 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Max Clapp '21 Michael Tellini '21 Noah Simmons '20 |
Mary Amis '19 Christopher Cheng '21 Sarah Chong '21 |
|
Northeastern University | Huskies | Caleb Niles '22 Carolyn Corbet '21 David Zymba '22 |
Julia Boll '21 Anne Wieland '19 Liz Silva '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
