Brown University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.39 (fleet 3.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–61 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 21–39 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–1 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–1 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (89 matches) the record is 30–59 against 39.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−9.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 2.71 | 6–6 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 1.38 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 2.57 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.75 | 0.49 | 2–12 | 8.0 | −2.27 | 8.9 | >99% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.76 | 5.76 | 3–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.78 | 3.24 | 3–2 | 2.5 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.35 | 2.11 | 3–11 | 3.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.01 | 1.99 | 3–7 | 3.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.1 | 3.11 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.5 | 3.44 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.2 | 3.23 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 3.67 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 3.05 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 6.7 | 4.01 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.8 | 3.72 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 2.56 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 4.03 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.9 | 3.90 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 2.91 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 2.76 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 3.22 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 3.25 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 10.8 | 2.88 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.2 | 3.72 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.9 | 2.70 |
| NEISA Central 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 2.34 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.98 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 1.62 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.0 | 1.72 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.6 | 2.17 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 3.02 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.1 | 4.73 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.8 | 3.74 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 2.86 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.6 | 1.34 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Seven | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 1.70 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 2.69 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 2.49 |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | 2.96 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 2.90 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 1.90 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 3.42 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
