Barque Eagle Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date04/04/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–3
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	10–4
3	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	9–5
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–6
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–6
6	Boston University	Terriers	5–9
7	Brown University	Bears	3–11
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,258 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 56 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.504 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.34 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	8.91 school +0.08	Stewart Draheim / Michael Mcbrien 2.96 9–1 Dirk Johnson / Megan Roach 3.00 8–2 Michael Gemperline / Ryan Topal 2.59 4–2 Martim Anderson / Morgan Wheeler 3.06 4–2 Michael Gemperline / Morgan Wheeler 2.69 3–1 Martim Anderson / Michael Mcbrien 3.09 2–0 Stewart Draheim / Dirk Johnson 2.99 2–0 Martim Anderson / Megan Roach 3.20 1–1	57%	11–3 (79%)	+3.0
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1	9.39 school +0.54	Kyle Burgess / Rachel Ryan 3.07 Thomas Galster / Julia Monro 2.80 Jonathan Lutz / Hannah Chapman 2.88	69%	10–4 (71%)	+0.4
3	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	9.01 school −0.28	Joseph David / Carter Little 3.06 Augie Dale / Colin Voigt 3.29 Jeremy Herrin / Kaylie Gallagher 2.83 6–2 Ethan Lounsbury / Kaylie Gallagher 2.95 3–3	60%	9–5 (64%)	+0.5
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	9.22 school −0.05	Hunter Johnstone / John Lewis 3.08 Erik Weis / Connor Lehan 2.97 Duncan Williford / Sophie Kerr 3.07 6–4 Nathaniel Johansson / Sophie Kerr 3.18 2–2	64%	8–6 (57%)	−0.9
4	Tufts University Jumbos	2	9.27 school +0.10	John Rolander / Natalie Danziger 3.09 Scott Barbano / Caroline Atwood 3.22 6–4 Casey Gowrie / Sadie Woolf 2.94 5–3 Casey Gowrie / Tyler Paige 2.62 3–3 Scott Barbano / Ryan Epprecht 2.98 2–2	67%	8–6 (57%)	−1.3
6	Boston University Terriers	6	8.05	Ravi Parent / Caroline Salas Joseph Benoit / Katherine Bienkowski 4–8 Hannah Polster / Margaret Swanson 3.06 4–8 Joseph Benoit / Margaret Swanson 1–1 Hannah Polster / Samuel Wright 2.74 1–1	34%	5–9 (36%)	+0.3
7	Brown University Bears	7	7.34 school +0.35	Franco Bilik / James Woodwell 2.35 Reid Secondo / Rachel Gutman 2.10 Sam Alexander / Olivia Lord 2.47 3–5 Sam Alexander / Eric Xiao 2.29 0–6	25%	3–11 (21%)	−0.5
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	7.31 school −0.42, home +0.31	Bradley Brown / Joshua Moan 2.69 Dylan Finneran / Erin Morgan 2.68 0–8 Matthew Orgill / Daniel Winter 0–8 Avery Fanning / Erin Morgan 3.51 2–4 Andrew Britton / Matthew Orgill 1.75 2–4	25%	2–12 (14%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University	8.91	9.98	11–3	8.0	+1.07	2.2	8%
3	Old Dominion University	9.01	9.20	9–5	8.5	+0.19	0.1	49%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.39	9.53	10–4	9.6	+0.15	0.0	54%
6	Boston University	8.05	8.15	5–9	4.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
7	Brown University	7.34	7.10	3–11	3.5	−0.24	0.1	74%
4	Dartmouth College	9.22	8.92	8–6	8.9	−0.29	0.2	79%
4	Tufts University	9.27	8.79	8–6	9.3	−0.48	0.5	87%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.31	6.51	2–12	3.5	−0.80	0.8	92%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.06	3.79	7–3	5.4	+0.74	0.8	23%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	2.83	3.40	6–2	5.2	+0.57	0.3	42%
Michael Gemperline	Roger Williams University	2.59	3.03	7–3	6.1	+0.44	0.3	40%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	3.06	3.26	9–5	8.5	+0.19	0.1	49%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.29	3.48	9–5	8.5	+0.19	0.1	49%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.07	3.22	10–4	9.6	+0.15	0.0	54%
Thomas Galster	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.80	2.95	10–4	9.6	+0.15	0.0	54%
Joseph Benoit	Boston University	2.16	2.26	5–9	4.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	2.55	2.65	5–9	4.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
Hannah Polster	Boston University	3.06	3.16	5–9	4.7	+0.10	0.0	54%
Franco Bilik	Brown University	2.35	2.11	3–11	3.5	−0.24	0.1	74%
Reid Secondo	Brown University	2.10	1.87	3–11	3.5	−0.24	0.1	74%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.51	3.23	2–4	2.4	−0.28	0.1	77%
Andrew Britton	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.75	1.47	2–4	2.4	−0.28	0.1	77%
Hunter Johnstone	Dartmouth College	3.08	2.79	8–6	8.9	−0.29	0.2	79%
Casey Gowrie	Tufts University	2.94	2.45	8–6	9.3	−0.48	0.5	87%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.22	2.74	8–6	9.3	−0.48	0.5	87%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.09	2.60	8–6	9.3	−0.48	0.5	87%
Bradley Brown	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.69	1.89	2–12	3.5	−0.80	0.8	92%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.68	-0.32	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%
Matthew Orgill	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.18	-1.82	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	54%
1	2	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	82%
1	4	Tufts University	Brown University	84%
1	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	22%	upset
1	6	Old Dominion University	Boston University	76%
1	7	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	55%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	90%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	60%
1	10	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	57%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Brown University	83%
1	13	Tufts University	Boston University	80%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	15	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	59%
1	16	Old Dominion University	Brown University	83%
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	18	Roger Williams University	Boston University	67%
1	19	Old Dominion University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Brown University	86%
1	21	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
1	22	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	39%	upset
1	23	Dartmouth College	Boston University	75%
1	24	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	68%
1	25	Old Dominion University	Roger Williams University	50%	upset
1	26	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
1	27	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
1	28	Boston University	Brown University	67%
2	29	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	45%	upset
2	30	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	78%
2	32	Tufts University	Brown University	86%
2	33	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
2	34	Boston University	Old Dominion University	28%	upset
2	35	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	51%
2	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	89%
2	37	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	41%	upset
2	38	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	51%
2	39	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	42%	upset
2	40	Roger Williams University	Brown University	82%
2	41	Tufts University	Boston University	78%
2	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
2	43	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	60%
2	44	Old Dominion University	Brown University	82%
2	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	49%	upset
2	46	Roger Williams University	Boston University	65%
2	47	Old Dominion University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	90%
2	48	Brown University	Dartmouth College	15%	upset
2	49	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
2	50	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	62%
2	51	Boston University	Dartmouth College	26%	upset
2	52	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	66%
2	53	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	50%
2	54	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	54%
2	55	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
2	56	Boston University	Brown University	68%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Seahawks	Monarchs	Green	Jumbos	Terriers	Bears	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–1	W	W	W	✕	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Brown University Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Seahawks	Monarchs	Green	Jumbos	Terriers	Bears	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	W	L	L	✕	L	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6 DNF
4	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
5	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6 DNF
9	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
10	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
11	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
12	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
13	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
15	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
18	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
19	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
20	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
22	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
23	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
24	Bears	2-5-6	def.	Bears	1-3-4 DSQ
25	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
26	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
28	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
29	Monarchs	1-2-6 DSQ	def.	Big Green	3-4-5 DSQ
30	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
31	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
32	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
33	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
34	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
35	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
37	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
38	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
39	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
40	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
42	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
43	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6 DNF
45	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
46	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
47	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
49	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
50	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
51	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
52	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
53	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
54	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
55	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
56	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Dirk Johnson '18 Martim Anderson '18 Michael Gemperline '17 Stewart Draheim '16	Megan Roach '18 Morgan Wheeler '15 Michael Mcbrien '18 Ryan Topal '15 Dirk Johnson '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Thomas Galster '15	Hannah Chapman '17 Rachel Ryan '15 Julia Monro '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Ethan Lounsbury '17 Jeremy Herrin '18 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Kaylie Gallagher '16 Carter Little '18
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Duncan Williford '18 Erik Weis '18 Hunter Johnstone '16 Nathaniel Johansson '18	Sophie Kerr '17 Connor Lehan '18 John Lewis '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Casey Gowrie '16 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Tyler Paige '18 Sadie Woolf '17 Natalie Danziger '17 Caroline Atwood '16 Ryan Epprecht '18
Boston University	Terriers	Hannah Polster '17 Joseph Benoit '16 Ravi Parent '18	Margaret Swanson '16 Samuel Wright '18 Katherine Bienkowski '17 Caroline Salas '18
Brown University	Bears	Franco Bilik '18 Reid Secondo '16 Sam Alexander '18	James Woodwell '18 Rachel Gutman '17 Olivia Lord '17 Eric Xiao '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Andrew Britton '16 Avery Fanning '16 Bradley Brown '15 Dylan Finneran '15 Matthew Orgill '16	Matthew Orgill '16 Erin Morgan '18 Joshua Moan '15 Daniel Winter '16

Conditions — 04/04/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1006.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.4 kn

avg · max 16.8 kn

Gusts to 39.1 kn

From WNW (303°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1006.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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