U. S. Coast Guard Academy '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 2.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–23 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 5–17 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 11–23 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 4.55 | 3–5 | 1.2 | +1.82 | 2.6 | 7% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 1.89 | 2–12 | 3.5 | −0.80 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.77 | 4.49 | 6–6 | 1.1 | +2.71 | 11.3 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.2 | 2.48 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 3.39 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.8 | 2.42 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 2.10 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.2 | 2.50 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 7.0 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.9 | 1.98 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 2.81 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 2.15 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 1.35 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 3.76 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 1.84 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.9 | 1.36 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 2.02 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 2.22 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 2 | 14.0 | 0.64 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Wellahan Trophy | Skipper | A, B | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | 1.05 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.67 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.6 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.1 | 1.44 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | 1.30 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 1.15 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.6 | 1.72 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | 1.36 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 1.35 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
