Greater New York Dinghy Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 25 15 40
2 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 15 29 44
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 19 25 44
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21 24 45
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 30 16 46
6 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 50 24 74
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 35 46 81
8 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 49 54 103
9 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 48 65 113
10 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 73 51 124
11 Williams College Williams College Ephs 58 68 126
12 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 65 68 133
13 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 58 80 138
14 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 85 65 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 1 2 7 1 1 15 Adam Keally '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Godfrey '16 [3-4]
Evan Morgan '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6 2 1 4 3 3 19 Jordan Bothwick '15
Albert Rodiger '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 5 9 2 2 2 21 Bradley Brown '15
Joshua Moan '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 4 3 4 1 7 6 25 Erik Weis '18
Connor Lehan '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 4 5 11 4 4 30 James Barry '16
Olivia Lord '17
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 6 3 5 8 8 35 Thomas Balk '18
Tara Bergstrom '18
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 11 9 8 3 12 5 48 Adam Devita '18
Luke Pelessone '18
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 9 11 6 10 6 7 49 Matthew Schmitt '17
Brian Bui '16
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 8 7 12 8 5 10 50 John Nothacker '16
Jonathan O'Connell '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 7 10 13 6 10 12 58 Nathaniel Barton '18
Josephine Jenks '18
Williams College Williams College Ephs 10 8 7 9 13 11 58 Jorge Castro '16
Emilia Welch '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 12 12 10 13 9 9 65 Andrew Lithen '18
Sara Conway '16
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 13 13 11 12 11 13 73 Kelly Chang '17
Marissa Erickson '17
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 14 DNF 14 14 14 14 85 Robert Ichiyama '18
Samantha Hung-Krause '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 6 2 1 1 3 15 Nathaniel Johansson '18
Caroline Lauer '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 3 2 2 7 16 Timothy Harding '15
Emily Haynes-Simmons '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 2 5 3 6 5 24 Joshua Morrison '17
Sulli Edwards '17
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4 4 1 4 5 6 24 Liam Murphy '17 [1-4]
James Keegan '16 [5-6]
Daseul Kim '17 [1-4]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6 5 4 5 3 2 25 Quinn Andersen '18
Haley Kachmar '18
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 7 3 8 6 4 1 29 Amanda Stapp '18
Gabrielle Mascio '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 8 9 8 8 8 46 Colin Keil '15 [1-6]
Perry Goodman '17 [1-2]
Alyson Hirschhorn '18 [3-6]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 9 9 6 7 10 10 51 Tyler Rochon '18
Elan Bacharach '18
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 11 12 11 9 7 4 54 Michael Danko '17
Robert Li '18
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 8 11 7 12 14 13 65 Adam Hicks '19
Ben Wilson '19
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 12 7 12 10 12 12 65 Loren Myers '16
Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 10 13 13 14 9 9 68 Tomasz Stefankowski '18 [1-4]
Cody Murphy '17 [5-6]
Brianna Cahill '17 [1-4]
Meaghan Coyne '16 [5-6]
Williams College Williams College Ephs 13 10 10 11 13 11 68 William Gomez '16
Didier Jean-Michel '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 14 14 14 13 11 14 80 Kevin Winnie '16 [1-4]
Lauren Javaly '15 [5-6]
Mariel Becker '18 [1-4]
Elaine Maskus '15 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights1111131311
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears113355
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears10108866
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2214141212
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels335577
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red44221414
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green557799
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams664422
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers886644
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers77991111
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets1212101088
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves9911111313
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals13131133
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs141412121010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights1212141422
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears224466
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears997755
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1113131111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels446688
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red33111313
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green66881010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams553311
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers775533
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers8810101212
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets11119977
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves101012121414
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals14142244
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs1313111199
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University James Barry '16 Olivia Lord '17
Bears Timothy Harding '15 Emily Haynes-Simmons '18
Columbia University Columbia University Adam Devita '18 Luke Pelessone '18
Lions Loren Myers '16 Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18
Connecticut College Connecticut College Jordan Bothwick '15 Albert Rodiger '18
Camels Quinn Andersen '18 Haley Kachmar '18
Cornell University Cornell University Thomas Balk '18 Tara Bergstrom '18
Big Red Colin Keil '15 [1-6] Perry Goodman '17 [1-2]
Alyson Hirschhorn '18 [3-6]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Erik Weis '18 Connor Lehan '18
Big Green Nathaniel Johansson '18 Caroline Lauer '18
Fordham University Fordham University Adam Keally '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Godfrey '16 [3-4]
Evan Morgan '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Rams Amanda Stapp '18 Gabrielle Mascio '18
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Robert Ichiyama '18 Samantha Hung-Krause '19
Tigers Adam Hicks '19 Ben Wilson '19
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College John Nothacker '16 Jonathan O'Connell '15
Privateers Liam Murphy '17 [1-4]
James Keegan '16 [5-6]
Daseul Kim '17 [1-4]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Andrew Lithen '18 Sara Conway '16
Seawolves Tomasz Stefankowski '18 [1-4]
Cody Murphy '17 [5-6]
Brianna Cahill '17 [1-4]
Meaghan Coyne '16 [5-6]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bradley Brown '15 Joshua Moan '15
Bears Joshua Morrison '17 Sulli Edwards '17
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Matthew Schmitt '17 Brian Bui '16
Black Knights Michael Danko '17 Robert Li '18
University of Rochester University of Rochester Kelly Chang '17 Marissa Erickson '17
Yellowjackets Tyler Rochon '18 Elan Bacharach '18
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Nathaniel Barton '18 Josephine Jenks '18
Cardinals Kevin Winnie '16 [1-4]
Lauren Javaly '15 [5-6]
Mariel Becker '18 [1-4]
Elaine Maskus '15 [5-6]
Williams College Williams College Jorge Castro '16 Emilia Welch '18
Ephs William Gomez '16 Didier Jean-Michel '17

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1009.6 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From WNW (286°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1009.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · E 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Fordham: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →