Cornell University '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21 (fleet 1.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–24 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 8–21 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 8–21 against 6.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.16 | 2.07 | 5–10 | 5.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.05 | 3.23 | 3–11 | 1.3 | +1.17 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.7 | 0.69 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.1 | 2.45 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 1.34 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 16.2 | 1.07 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 2.03 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 1.57 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.8 | 1.49 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 1.79 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 2.03 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.9 | 1.71 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 0.64 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 1.91 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.6 | 1.22 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 1.30 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 1.01 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.8 | 1.89 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.8 | 0.04 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
