| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 14–1 |
| 2 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 12–3 |
| 3 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 7–8 |
| 4 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 6–9 |
| 4 |  |
University of Buffalo | Bulls | 6–9 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton University | Pirates | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 675 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 45 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.281 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 6.59 | 7.49 | 14–1 | 12.9 | +0.90 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2 | Cornell University | 6.11 | 6.23 | 12–3 | 11.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | University of Buffalo | 4.17 | 4.15 | 6–9 | 6.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 4 | George Washington University | 4.25 | 4.13 | 6–9 | 6.3 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 3 | Old Dominion University | 4.66 | 4.43 | 7–8 | 7.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 6 | Hampton University | 1.29 | -1.71 | 0–15 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Red | Monarchs | Colonials | Bulls | Pirates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Buffalo Bulls | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Hampton University Pirates | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Red | Monarchs | Colonials | Bulls | Pirates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | L | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Buffalo Bulls | 3–2 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | W |
| Hampton University Pirates | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Red | Monarchs | Colonials | Bulls | Pirates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Buffalo Bulls | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Hampton University Pirates | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 DNF |
| 16 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 33 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-3-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pirates | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 45 | |
Colonials | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Alexander Curtiss '16 Thad Bench '15 Thomas Galster '15 |
John Boot '15 Kaitlyn Noreen '16 Rachel Ryan '15 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 Colin Keil '15 Duncan Howes '15 |
Gregory Reppucci '15 Natalie Macdisi '16 Alex Gatto '15 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Daniel Montgomery '16 Jaclyn Hollander '15 Jacob Spracher '15 |
Kaylie Gallagher '16 Cady Johnson '16 Colin Voigt '15 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Ian Connors '13 Jay Spector '16 Richard Sant '13 |
Henry Young '16 Kaitlin Denny '14 Christopher Nolfi '14 |
|
University of Buffalo | Bulls | Andrew Green '14 Griffin Orr '15 Luke Miller '15 |
Melissa Eiffert '14 Collin Mandris '13 Stephanie Rosenbaum '13 |
|
Hampton University | Pirates | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 Jela-Ni Mccarthy '16 Joshua Gopeesingh '14 |
Albert Berk Toledo '15 Travis Parker '14 Ramatoulie Sallah-Mohammed '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
