University of Buffalo '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.53 (fleet 0.74) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–31 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–25 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (7 matches) the record is 1–6 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 0.74 | -0.11 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.85 | 0.2 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 17.2 | 0.58 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.3 | 0.71 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.4 | 0.70 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 13.1 | 0.83 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.1 | 0.18 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.7 | -1.49 |
| MAISA Club Team Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.4 | -0.48 |
| Colgate Fall Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | -0.18 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Buckeye Intersectional | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 1.42 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| North 2 | Crew | B | 4 | 13.5 | — |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | 0.30 |
| MAISA North #1 Qualifier | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.0 | -0.74 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | -0.92 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
