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MAISA Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 62
2 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 173
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 186
4 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 209
5 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 362
6 University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa 365
7 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 394
8 University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 425
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 26 William Godfrey '16
Sarah Hogg '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 5 6 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 6 2 1 36 Stewart Draheim '16
Megan Barden '16
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 6 2 3 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 7 3 3 10 71 Mia Cooper '14
Emma Huntress '16
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 3 8 7 10 4 8 2 7 7 5 8 5 4 2 7 5 92 Collin Clark '14
Emma Mcgrath '16
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 9 7 4 3 5 4 4 4 9 8 3 8 3 8 9 6 94 Hillary Paulsen '13
David Sternau '15
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 2 3 5 4 9 5 6 6 4 9 5 7 11 4 13 9 102 Johanna Monro '16
Mary Hamilton '14
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls B 4 5 9 8 6 9 10 12 6 4 6 3 8 5 4 3 102 Dante Iozzo '16
Quinton Jones '16
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls A 7 9 6 6 3 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 5 8 107 Andrew Green '14
Stephanie Rosenbaum '13
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange A 10 4 8 13 8 7 11 11 5 6 15 12 14 10 6 4 144 Nicholas Pardini '16
Abigail Feikes '16
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester A 8 13 10 5 10 10 7 5 12 11 9 9 10 12 11 15 157 Daniel Christiani '15
Paul Fanara '17
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa B 12 10 11 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 10 11 5 11 8 7 157 Claire Desbrisay '13
Camille Dubois '14
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue B 11 15 14 16 13 13 13 13 11 13 14 10 13 13 10 14 206 Rachel Kozicz '16
Jessica Lee '12
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa University of Ottawa A 13 14 13 15 12 12 12 15 13 14 13 16 12 9 12 13 208 Jacob Thornhill '14
Blair Dale '16
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange B 16 12 12 9 15 15 16 16 15 15 11 15 9 15 15 12 218 Devin Chambers '15
Meghan Ross '15
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue A 14 11 15 11 14 14 15 10 16 12 12 14 15 16 14 16 219 Rebecca Vinci '16
Caroline Fraser '15
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester B 15 16 16 14 16 16 14 14 14 16 16 13 16 14 16 11 237 Ben Pacnas '16
John Nasielski '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls8877665544332211
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red1122334455667788
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams2211161615151414131312121111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen334455667788991010
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa443322111616151514141313
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester5566778899101011111212
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange66554433221116161515
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue77889910101111121213131414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls161615151414131312121111101099
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red991010111112121313141415151616
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams101099887766554433
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1111121213131414151516161122
University of OttawaUniversity of Ottawa University of Ottawa1212111110109988776655
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester131314141515161611223344
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange14141313121211111010998877
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue15151616112233445566

Conditions — 10/20/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1005.9 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1005.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · W 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.29 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →