Team Race Challenge

HostWashington College
Date03/23/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Washington College	Shoremen	18–0
2	Cornell University	Big Red	15–3
3	Fordham University	Rams	10–8
4	University of Virginia	Wahoos	9–9
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5–13
6	Webb Institute	Clippers	4–14
7	University of Buffalo	Bulls	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 720 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 63 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.337 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Washington College Shoremen	1	8.22 home +0.24	Ryan Bailey / Matt Lawler 2.84 Sam Fitzgerald / Blair Towers 2.98 Samuel Bedinger / Alexandra Crawford 2.04	84%	18–0 (100%)	+2.8
2	Cornell University Big Red	2	7.90 school +0.12	Duncan Howes / Lindsey Ludwig 2.23 Lauren Turner / Claire Riedman Alden Sonnenfeldt / Gregory Reppucci 2.39 12–0 Alden Sonnenfeldt / Devon Furlong 2.40 3–3	79%	15–3 (83%)	+0.8
3	Fordham University Rams	4	6.52 school +0.21	Samuel Peirson / Emma Huntress 1.46 Connor Godfrey / Jennifer Irwin 2.39 Adam Keally / Dan Canziani 2.03 10–5 Adam Keally / Emma Pfohman 2.02 0–3	52%	10–8 (56%)	+0.6
4	University of Virginia Wahoos	3	7.00 school +0.17	Samuel Patterson / Alexandra Brenin 1.00 Christopher Stessing / Ellen Hubbard 2.55 6–9 Gordon Wolcott / Jacob Sztraicher 3.00 3–6 Gordon Wolcott / Hannah Varden 3.27 6–3 Christopher Stessing / Hannah Varden 2.43 3–0	62%	9–9 (50%)	−2.1
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5	6.01 school −0.20	Julia Paxton / George Roberson 2.37 Matthew Nilsen / Jamileh Soueidan 1.53 Matthew Nilsen / Lauren Albano 1.88	42%	5–13 (28%)	−2.5
6	Webb Institute Clippers	7	4.38	James Codega / Erin Hub Nathan Fast / Cody Stansky Dylan Froriep / Casey Brown	14%	4–14 (22%)	+1.4
7	University of Buffalo Bulls	6	4.56	Griffin Orr / Stephanie Rosenbaum 2.58 Luke Miller / Melissa Eiffert 1.30 Andrew Green / Elisa Schneider 0.41	17%	2–16 (11%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Washington College	8.22	11.22	18–0	15.2	≥+3.00	4.5	4%
6	Webb Institute	4.38	5.07	4–14	2.6	+0.68	0.7	23%
2	Cornell University	7.90	8.24	15–3	14.2	+0.35	0.2	45%
3	Fordham University	6.52	6.74	10–8	9.4	+0.22	0.1	46%
7	University of Buffalo	4.56	3.98	2–16	3.0	−0.58	0.4	86%
4	University of Virginia	7.00	6.26	9–9	11.1	−0.74	1.1	94%
5	SUNY Maritime College	6.01	5.03	5–13	7.6	−0.98	1.8	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ryan Bailey	Washington College	2.84	5.84	18–0	15.2	≥+3.00	4.5	4%
Sam Fitzgerald	Washington College	2.98	5.98	18–0	15.2	≥+3.00	4.5	4%
Samuel Bedinger	Washington College	2.04	5.04	18–0	15.2	≥+3.00	4.5	4%
James Codega	Webb Institute	0.90	1.59	4–14	2.6	+0.68	0.7	23%
Nathan Fast	Webb Institute	1.48	2.17	4–14	2.6	+0.68	0.7	23%
Dylan Froriep	Webb Institute	1.41	2.10	4–14	2.6	+0.68	0.7	23%
Alden Sonnenfeldt	Cornell University	2.39	2.74	15–3	14.2	+0.35	0.2	45%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.23	2.58	15–3	14.2	+0.35	0.2	45%
Lauren Turner	Cornell University	2.73	3.08	15–3	14.2	+0.35	0.2	45%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	2.39	2.61	10–8	9.4	+0.22	0.1	46%
Adam Keally	Fordham University	2.03	2.25	10–8	9.4	+0.22	0.1	46%
Griffin Orr	University of Buffalo	2.58	2.00	2–16	3.0	−0.58	0.4	86%
Andrew Green	University of Buffalo	0.41	-0.17	2–16	3.0	−0.58	0.4	86%
Gordon Wolcott	University of Virginia	3.00	2.26	9–9	11.1	−0.74	1.1	94%
Christopher Stessing	University of Virginia	2.55	1.81	9–9	11.1	−0.74	1.1	94%
Samuel Patterson	University of Virginia	1.00	0.27	9–9	11.1	−0.74	1.1	94%
Julia Paxton	SUNY Maritime College	2.37	1.39	5–13	7.6	−0.98	1.8	97%
Matthew Nilsen	SUNY Maritime College	1.53	0.55	10–26	15.1	−0.98	3.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	87%
1	2	Fordham University	University of Buffalo	86%
1	3	University of Virginia	Webb Institute	94%
1	4	Washington College	Cornell University	63%
1	5	SUNY Maritime College	University of Buffalo	80%
1	6	Webb Institute	Fordham University	10%	upset
1	7	Washington College	University of Virginia	79%
1	8	Cornell University	University of Buffalo	96%
1	9	Webb Institute	SUNY Maritime College	16%	upset
1	10	Washington College	Fordham University	86%
1	11	Cornell University	University of Virginia	71%
1	12	University of Buffalo	Webb Institute	56%
1	13	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	14	Cornell University	Fordham University	81%
1	15	University of Virginia	University of Buffalo	93%
1	16	Washington College	Webb Institute	98%
1	17	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
1	18	Cornell University	Webb Institute	97%
1	19	University of Virginia	SUNY Maritime College	75%
1	20	Washington College	University of Buffalo	98%
1	21	Fordham University	University of Virginia	36%	upset
2	22	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	87%
2	23	Fordham University	University of Buffalo	88%
2	24	University of Virginia	Webb Institute	92%
2	25	Washington College	Cornell University	57%
2	26	SUNY Maritime College	University of Buffalo	81%
2	27	Fordham University	Webb Institute	89%
2	28	Washington College	University of Virginia	78%
2	29	Cornell University	University of Buffalo	97%
2	30	SUNY Maritime College	Webb Institute	83%
2	31	Washington College	Fordham University	84%
2	32	Cornell University	University of Virginia	73%
2	33	Webb Institute	University of Buffalo	47%	upset
2	34	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	90%
2	35	Cornell University	Fordham University	81%
2	36	University of Virginia	University of Buffalo	92%
2	37	Washington College	Webb Institute	98%
2	38	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
2	39	Cornell University	Webb Institute	97%
2	40	University of Virginia	SUNY Maritime College	73%
2	41	Washington College	University of Buffalo	97%
2	42	Fordham University	University of Virginia	38%	upset
3	43	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	87%
3	44	Fordham University	University of Buffalo	88%
3	45	University of Virginia	Webb Institute	92%
3	46	Washington College	Cornell University	55%
3	47	University of Buffalo	SUNY Maritime College	18%	upset
3	48	Fordham University	Webb Institute	89%
3	49	Washington College	University of Virginia	77%
3	50	Cornell University	University of Buffalo	97%
3	51	SUNY Maritime College	Webb Institute	83%
3	52	Washington College	Fordham University	83%
3	53	Cornell University	University of Virginia	73%
3	54	Webb Institute	University of Buffalo	48%	upset
3	55	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	89%
3	56	Cornell University	Fordham University	81%
3	57	University of Virginia	University of Buffalo	92%
3	58	Washington College	Webb Institute	97%
3	59	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
3	60	Cornell University	Webb Institute	97%
3	61	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	28%	upset
3	62	Washington College	University of Buffalo	97%
3	63	University of Virginia	Fordham University	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Shoremen	Red	Rams	Wahoos	Privateers	Clippers	Bulls
Washington College Shoremen	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Webb Institute Clippers	2–4	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L
University of Buffalo Bulls	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Shoremen	Red	Rams	Wahoos	Privateers	Clippers	Bulls
Washington College Shoremen	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Buffalo Bulls	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Shoremen	Red	Rams	Wahoos	Privateers	Clippers	Bulls
Washington College Shoremen	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	3–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Webb Institute Clippers	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Buffalo Bulls	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
2	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
3	Wahoos	1-3-6	def.	Clippers	2-4-5
4	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
5	Privateers	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
6	Clippers	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
7	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
8	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
9	Clippers	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
10	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
11	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
12	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Clippers	1-4-6
13	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
14	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
15	Wahoos	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
16	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
17	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
18	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
19	Wahoos	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
20	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
21	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
22	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
23	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
24	Wahoos	1-2-6	def.	Clippers	3-4-5
25	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
26	Privateers	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
27	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
28	Shoremen	1-4-5	def.	Wahoos	2-3-6
29	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
30	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
31	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
32	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
33	Clippers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
34	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
35	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
36	Wahoos	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
37	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
38	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
39	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
40	Wahoos	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
41	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
42	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
43	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
44	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
45	Wahoos	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
46	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
47	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
48	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
49	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
50	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
51	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
52	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
53	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Wahoos	2-4-6
54	Clippers	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
55	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
56	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
57	Wahoos	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
58	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
59	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
60	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
61	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
62	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
63	Wahoos	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Washington College	Shoremen	Ryan Bailey '15 Sam Fitzgerald '14 Samuel Bedinger '13	Matt Lawler '13 Blair Towers '15 Alexandra Crawford '16
Cornell University	Big Red	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 Duncan Howes '15 Lauren Turner '13	Devon Furlong '13 Gregory Reppucci '15 Lindsey Ludwig '14 Claire Riedman '16
Fordham University	Rams	Adam Keally '15 Connor Godfrey '16 Samuel Peirson '16	Emma Pfohman '13 Dan Canziani '14 Jennifer Irwin '15 Emma Huntress '16
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Christopher Stessing '14 Gordon Wolcott '13 Samuel Patterson '16	Ellen Hubbard '14 Hannah Varden '15 Jacob Sztraicher '14 Alexandra Brenin '15
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Julia Paxton '14 Matthew Nilsen '14	George Roberson '15 Jamileh Soueidan '15 Lauren Albano '16
Webb Institute	Clippers	Dylan Froriep '15 James Codega '14 Nathan Fast '14	Casey Brown '16 Erin Hub '16 Cody Stansky '16
University of Buffalo	Bulls	Andrew Green '14 Griffin Orr '15 Luke Miller '15	Elisa Schneider '16 Stephanie Rosenbaum '13 Melissa Eiffert '14

Conditions — 03/23/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 33°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.7 kn

avg · max 12.8 kn

Gusts to 23.9 kn

From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1014.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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