Washington College '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.38 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 45 | Fall 2012 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.17 (fleet 2.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 49–66 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 5–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 19–11 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 25–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 25–50 against 21.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.19 | 3.81 | 4–3 | 3.2 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 2.38 | 1–13 | 1.5 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.02 | 1.71 | 4–3 | 5.3 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.07 | 4.80 | 7–5 | 3.4 | +1.73 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 4.53 | 8–3 | 5.5 | +1.58 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | -0.48 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.92 | 1.93 | 1–13 | 2.2 | −0.99 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.0 | 2.36 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.6 | 2.45 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.2 | 3.28 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 2.15 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 3.74 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 3.00 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.0 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 2.22 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.8 | 2.60 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 2.92 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 3.32 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.8 | 3.54 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.7 | 2.67 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.5 | 2.59 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 2.86 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 16.1 | 1.85 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.8 | 2.66 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 14.4 | 1.90 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.8 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 12 | 11.4 | 2.32 |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 27% | — |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 2.57 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 3.59 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 3.08 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 9.9 | 2.78 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 13 | 10.5 | 2.16 |
| MAISA Laser #2 Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.7 | 2.84 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | 2.08 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.4 | 2.22 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.5 | 0.98 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 19 | 7.9 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 1.62 |
| Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.0 | 2.08 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 9.1 | 2.75 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 18 | 10.6 | 2.44 |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 3.22 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 3.47 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
