MAISA Laser #2

HostNavy
Date09/22/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	71
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	71
3	Old Dominion University	Evan Hoffmann '14	100
4	Washington College	Ryan Bailey '15	102
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Devin Laviano '13	131
6	Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	131
7	Kean University	Tyler Kennedy '13	142
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Nicholas Lachance '16	163
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Dylan Marohn '16	169
10	SUNY Maritime College	Mike Carr '15	179
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	193
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	195
13	Old Dominion University	Jacob Spracher '15	206
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	John Darby '14	207
15	Drexel University	Chris Myers '15	214
16	SUNY Maritime College	John Nothacker '16	249
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Hallowell '16	269
18	Villanova University	William Joumas '15	284

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	2	7	4	1	4	1	1	5	2	11	6	1	2	3	1	4	4	12	71
U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	8	4	16	2	1	8	2	2	RDG	6	1	3	1	1	6	2	1	6	71
Old Dominion University	Evan Hoffmann '14	7	1	2	5	13	6	4	4	4	10	9	7	5	4	4	3	10	2	100
Washington College	Ryan Bailey '15	13	3	18	4	5	7	3	6	7	4	3	5	4	9	3	1	2	5	102
U. S. Naval Academy	Devin Laviano '13	1	2	10	10	3	3	11	3	5	5	10	13	18	12	10	5	6	4	131
Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	3	5	11	6	6	2	9	7	9	8	2	8	6	10	13	10	13	3	131
Kean University	Tyler Kennedy '13	6	6	15	9	12	4	12	1	1	3	5	11	7	17	2	6	16	9	142
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Nicholas Lachance '16	12	14	9	3	7	14	14	18	6	2	13	2	3	15	5	8	3	15	163
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Dylan Marohn '16	9	10	5	15	2	9	6	12	10	1	4	6	12	7	17	13	15	16	169
SUNY Maritime College	Mike Carr '15	16	9	13	11	15	5	10	8	15	7	7	4	13	5	9	12	12	8	179
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	11	11	3	12	9	15	8	9	13	12	8	17	11	6	8	16	14	10	193
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	18	12	8	13	11	16	5	11	14	9	12	16	17	2	12	11	7	1	195
Old Dominion University	Jacob Spracher '15	4	15	1	14	8	12	7	14	8	15	18	12	8	18	14	15	9	14	206
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	John Darby '14	15	8	6	8	18	11	13	15	11	14	15	10	9	8	16	14	5	11	207
Drexel University	Chris Myers '15	5	13	14	16	10	10	18	10	12	13	14	15	10	13	11	9	8	13	214
SUNY Maritime College	John Nothacker '16	10	17	7	7	16	13	17	17	18	16	16	9	15	11	18	18	17	7	249
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Hallowell '16	14	16	17	17	14	18	16	16	17	17	17	18	14	16	7	7	11	17	269
Villanova University	William Joumas '15	17	18	12	18	17	17	15	13	16	18	11	14	16	14	15	17	18	18	284

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Philip Youngberg '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	18/18	2.02	3.49	+1.47	53rd → 90th	10.6	1%	3.9 / 8.3
2	Markus Edegran '16	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.58	3.29	+0.72	67th → 87th	2.6	14%	4.9 / 6.8
3	Evan Hoffmann '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	18/18	2.28	2.89	+0.61	59th → 78th	2.2	14%	5.6 / 7.6
4	Ryan Bailey '15	Washington College	18/18	2.10	2.68	+0.58	55th → 71st	1.9	16%	5.7 / 8.1
5	Devin Laviano '13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.30	2.08	−0.22	60th → 54th	0.3	48%	7.3 / 7.6
5	Joseph David '16	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	18/18	1.58	2.41	+0.83	39th → 61st	4.1	14%	7.3 / 9.5
7	Tyler Kennedy '13	Kean University	18/18	1.39	2.01	+0.62	34th → 52nd	2.3	21%	7.9 / 10.0
8	Nicholas Lachance '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	1.29	1.59	+0.31	30th → 39th	0.6	33%	9.1 / 10.2
9	Dylan Marohn '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	18/18	1.04	1.64	+0.60	24th → 40th	2.2	27%	9.4 / 10.9
10	Mike Carr '15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	18/18	1.98	1.65	−0.33	51st → 41st	0.8	74%	9.9 / 8.4
11	Chris Wilson '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	18/18	1.55	1.45	−0.09	38th → 36th	0.1	71%	10.7 / 9.7
12	Austin Neuman '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	18/18	1.47	1.25	−0.22	37th → 29th	0.3	71%	10.8 / 9.8
13	Jacob Spracher '15	Old Dominion University Big Blue	18/18	1.89	0.98	−0.91	48th → 22nd	6.4	88%	11.4 / 8.6
14	John Darby '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	18/18	1.81	1.17	−0.65	44th → 27th	3.2	90%	11.5 / 8.9
15	Chris Myers '15	Drexel University	18/18	0.72	1.24	+0.51	17th → 29th	1.6	51%	11.9 / 11.7
16	John Nothacker '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	18/18	1.13	0.27	−0.86	25th → 10th	5.0	90%	13.8 / 10.7
17	Sam Hallowell '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	18/18	1.08^u	0.21	−0.88	25th → 9th	5.7	97%	14.9 / 10.8
18	William Joumas '15	Villanova University	18/18	0.02	-0.01	−0.03	6th → 6th	0.0	86%	15.8 / 13.4

Conditions — 09/22/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 63% · Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 66°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.4 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 21.8 kn

From SSW (200°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1010.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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