University of Virginia '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.19 (fleet 3.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–47 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 14–36 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 4–11 against 3.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 3.96 | 3–7 | 1.4 | +1.07 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.65 | 1.70 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.95 | 0.5 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 3.25 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 3.03 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.2 | 3.42 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.8 | 2.52 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.3 | 2.57 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.27 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.4 | 2.28 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 2.95 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.7 | 2.83 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 3.19 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.0 | 2.62 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 18% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 18 | 14.7 | 2.03 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 2.59 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.8 | 2.01 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Crew | B | 7 | 6.4 | — |
| South #1 | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.9 | 2.84 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 1.96 |
| MAISA Club Team Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 2.17 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.8 | 1.56 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 2.01 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.6 | 1.70 |
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.4 | 2.00 |
| Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.1 | 2.05 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 2.35 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 2.18 |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.8 | 2.93 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.1 | 2.22 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Dominion Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 1.47 |
| MAISA South Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.0 | 2.06 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.4 | 1.33 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.7 | 1.16 |
| St. Mary's Fall | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.7 | 1.99 |
| South #1/ Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.8 | 1.59 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 2.69 |
| Maisa Club S | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.2 | 1.97 |
| Maisa Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 2.14 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 2.03 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
