MAISA South Spring Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 11 20 31
2 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 39 29 68
3 University of Maryland University of Maryland Maryland 32 54 86
4 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 52 37 89
5 Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 43 47 90
6 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 57 39 96
7 Salisbury University Salisbury University Salisbury 47 54 101
8 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 79 75 154
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 Gordon Wolcott '13
Linda Codega '13
University of Maryland University of Maryland Maryland 4 3 1 3 7 3 5 2 2 2 32 Russell Cramer '11
Andrew Rybczynski '12
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 2 3 2 4 4 7 5 4 6 39 William Ricketson '11
Kaitlin Denny '14
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 6 5 4 5 6 2 2 3 3 7 43 Andrew Shoemaker '15
Ian Guagliardo '15
Salisbury University Salisbury University Salisbury 3 4 5 6 3 5 6 6 5 4 47 Kyle Miller '11
Shaylyn Leary '12
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 5 7 8 4 2 6 4 7 6 3 52 Victoria Miller '13 [1-10]
Tara Mahoney '13 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Henry Million '11 [3-4, 7-8]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 7 6 6 7 5 7 3 4 7 5 57 Bill Parker '14 [1-10]
Diana Kong-Wasielewski '14 [1-2, 5-10]
Gregory Beckwith '13 [3-4]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 79 Erin Maines '17
Eileen Stevens '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 5 20 Christopher Stessing '14
Amanda Pinckney '14
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 2 8 3 5 BKD 1 2 1 3 29 Meredith Carroll '11 [1-10]
Alina Lekser '11 [1-2, 5-10]
Skye Kussman '13 [3-4]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport 5 7 1 1 4 3 5 4 6 1 37 Ian Mcallister '14 [1-8]
Henry Million '11 [9-10]
Annie Eckmann '14 [1-2, 7-10]
Maggie Gore '13 [3-6]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 3 4 6 BKD 3 2 2 3 5 7 39 Andrew Bryan '13
Delaney Osborn '13
Hampton University Hampton University Pirates 4 3 7 4 2 5 7 6 3 6 47 Kimannee Simon '14 [1-10]
Athnel George '13 [1-4, 9-10]
Joshua Gopeesingh '14 [5-8]
Salisbury University Salisbury University Salisbury 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 4 2 54 John Kinnally '11
Molly Graham '14
University of Maryland University of Maryland Maryland 7 5 3 6 7 6 4 5 7 4 54
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech 8 8 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 75 Theresa Kelly '12
Scott Brink '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport1122334455
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials2211887766
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates3344556677
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Maryland4433221188
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Salisbury5566778811
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos6655443322
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Virginia Tech7788112233
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8877665544

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Christopher Newport1122334455
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials2211887766
Hampton UniversityHampton University Pirates3344556677
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Maryland4433221188
Salisbury UniversitySalisbury University Salisbury5566778811
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos6655443322
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Virginia Tech7788112233
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8877665544

Conditions — 04/02/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1005.6 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.0 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 31.7 kn
From W (269°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1005.6 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 21 kn · W 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christopher Newport/William and Mary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.32 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.25 means a rating gap counts about 22% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport/William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Christopher Newport/William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →