University of Buffalo '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 42.04 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.89 (fleet 1.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–31 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–25 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (7 matches) the record is 1–6 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 1.24 | 0.40 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.85 | 0.2 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 16.5 | 0.46 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.4 | 1.61 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 0.86 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 15.4 | 0.90 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| North Fall #1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 1.51 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 15.9 | 1.23 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.1 | 0.49 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 1.51 |
| MAISA North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.6 | 1.99 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 16.6 | -0.27 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.6 | 1.18 |
| 66th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 1.98 |
| North Fall #2 Qualifier | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.1 | 1.84 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.8 | 0.50 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 1.93 |
| Colgate Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 0.67 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.3 | 0.60 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 0.03 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Luke Miller |  U. S. Coast Guard Academy |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
