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North Spring Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 32 14 46
2 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 24 33 57
3 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 44 21 65
4 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 67 20 87
5 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Buffalo 39 65 104
6 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 54 56 110
7 Colgate University Colgate University Colgate 55 60 115
8 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 64 53 117
9 University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 53 98 151
10 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 84 68 152
11 Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 66 90 156
12 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 68 88 156
13 University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 93 64 157
14 Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 98 110 208
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 7 6 2 2 1 1 2 3 24 Alexander Sachs '12
Mary Hamilton '14
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 1 1 1 3 2 RAF 1 32 Philip Alley '12
Devon Furlong '13
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Buffalo 1 4 7 3 2 3 10 9 39 Nick Ventrilla '12
Stephanie Rosenbaum '13
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 2 11 11 8 5 1 4 44 John Croll '12
Nicolas Leeper '14
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 10 5 6 6 11 9 4 2 53 Chantal Hearst '12
Amelia Leeksma '12
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 5 8 5 8 6 8 3 11 54 James Codega '14
Michael Larose '13
Colgate University Colgate University Colgate 14 11 3 4 4 7 5 7 55 Jeffrey Gordon '13 [1-8]
Caroline Libby '14 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Hele '13 [5-6]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 13 3 9 12 7 4 8 8 64 Ian Hunt '13
Olivia Robertson '15
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 4 9 10 5 5 6 13 14 66 William Mcivor '12
John Boudreau '14
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 12 10 4 7 12 10 6 6 67 Matthew Sullivan '13
Andrew Leriche '15
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 9 7 8 9 10 13 7 5 68 Andrew Murphy '14
Meghan Ross '15
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 3 12 12 10 9 14 12 12 84 Stan Benarick '12
Jack Pinnell '15
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 6 13 13 13 13 11 11 13 93 Phillip Sellstrom '13
James Haley Iii '14
Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 11 14 14 14 14 12 9 10 98 Benjamin Goldlust '14
Matthew Sumner '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 1 14 Duncan Howes '15
Lindsey Ludwig '14
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 2 20 Arielle Morgan '13
William Douglas '13
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 3 21 David Coplon '12
Irene Jacqz '13
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 11 5 3 1 4 2 3 4 33 Alex Reynolds '14
Jennifer Irwin '15
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 4 6 8 8 6 5 8 8 53 Daniel Christiani '15
Peter Thorpe '13
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 9 7 6 9 5 6 5 9 56 Douglas Zangre '13
Marc Smith '13
Colgate University Colgate University Colgate 5 8 11 6 8 7 10 5 60 Chase Jackson '13 [1-2]
Margaret Mcmullen '13 [3-8]
Kate Hele '13 [1-2]
Leah Feldman '14 [3-4, 7-8]
Hillary Karsten '12 [5-6]
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 7 9 5 11 7 9 9 7 64 Kathryn Luly '14
Laura Mcnamara '15
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Buffalo 8 4 7 7 9 8 11 11 65 Luke Miller '15
Ana Misenas '14
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 10 11 10 5 10 10 6 6 68 David Geer '13
Victor Ladd '15
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 13 10 9 12 13 12 7 12 88 Patrick Stege '14 [1-8]
Nick Allen '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Grant '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Hamilton College Hamilton College Hamilton 6 12 12 10 12 11 14 13 90 Jack Cartwright '15
Natalie Warren '15
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 12 13 13 13 11 13 13 10 98 Gloria Mak '14
Gregory De Santis '14
Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 14 110 Andrew Lowy '15 [1-8]
Julie Jursik '15 [1-6]
Jeremy Ritter-Wiseman '15 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army11335577
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Buffalo1313113355
Colgate UniversityColgate University Colgate22141412121010
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions33557799
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red442214141212
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams5577991111
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton6644221414
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels779911111313
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester88664422
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester991111131311
Skidmore CollegeSkidmore College Skidmore1010886644
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange111113131133
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue121210108866
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers14141212101088

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army22446688
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Buffalo1414224466
Colgate UniversityColgate University Colgate111313111199
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions4466881010
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red331113131111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams668810101212
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Hamilton5533111313
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels88101012121414
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester77553311
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester10101212141422
Skidmore CollegeSkidmore College Skidmore99775533
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange121214142244
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue1111997755
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers131311119977
School / Team SkipperCrew
Colgate University Colgate University Jeffrey Gordon '13 [1-8] Caroline Libby '14 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Hele '13 [5-6]
Colgate Chase Jackson '13 [1-2]
Margaret Mcmullen '13 [3-8]		 Kate Hele '13 [1-2]
Leah Feldman '14 [3-4, 7-8]
Hillary Karsten '12 [5-6]
Columbia University Columbia University John Croll '12 Nicolas Leeper '14
Lions David Coplon '12 Irene Jacqz '13
Cornell University Cornell University Philip Alley '12 Devon Furlong '13
Big Red Duncan Howes '15 Lindsey Ludwig '14
Fordham University Fordham University Alexander Sachs '12 Mary Hamilton '14
Rams Alex Reynolds '14 Jennifer Irwin '15
Hamilton College Hamilton College William Mcivor '12 John Boudreau '14
Hamilton Jack Cartwright '15 Natalie Warren '15
Queen's University Queen's University Matthew Sullivan '13 Andrew Leriche '15
Gaels Arielle Morgan '13 William Douglas '13
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Ian Hunt '13 Olivia Robertson '15
Rochester Daniel Christiani '15 Peter Thorpe '13
Skidmore College Skidmore College Benjamin Goldlust '14 Matthew Sumner '15
Skidmore Andrew Lowy '15 [1-8] Julie Jursik '15 [1-6]
Jeremy Ritter-Wiseman '15 [7-8]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Andrew Murphy '14 Meghan Ross '15
Orange Patrick Stege '14 [1-8] Nick Allen '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Grant '15 [3-4, 7-8]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Stan Benarick '12 Jack Pinnell '15
Army David Geer '13 Victor Ladd '15
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Nick Ventrilla '12 Stephanie Rosenbaum '13
Buffalo Luke Miller '15 Ana Misenas '14
University of Rochester University of Rochester Phillip Sellstrom '13 James Haley Iii '14
U. Rochester Kathryn Luly '14 Laura Mcnamara '15
University of Toronto University of Toronto Chantal Hearst '12 Amelia Leeksma '12
True Blue Gloria Mak '14 Gregory De Santis '14
Webb Institute Webb Institute James Codega '14 Michael Larose '13
Clippers Douglas Zangre '13 Marc Smith '13

Conditions — 03/31/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 43°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.3 kn
Gusts to 10.1 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1013.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn · SW 5 kn · NW 13 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →