Cornell University '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.21 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Fall 2012 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 2.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 81–80 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 13–14 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 33–39 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 35–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 47–66 against 47.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.0). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.01 | 3.02 | 4–3 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 3.12 | 9–11 | 8.9 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.13 | 2.10 | 4–17 | 6.6 | −1.04 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.05 | 6.05 | 7–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.8 | 6% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.99 | 4.45 | 10–5 | 6.5 | +1.46 | 3.8 | 2% |
| 2014-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 1.37 | 9–6 | 12.2 | −1.51 | 3.8 | >99% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.72 | 3.90 | 3–11 | 1.3 | +1.17 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.84 | 1.56 | 1–13 | 2.6 | −1.27 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 45% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 3.49 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.1 | 2.65 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 7 | 17.0 | 1.79 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.4 | 2.82 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.31 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.2 | 2.30 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 2.44 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.6 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 2.79 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.0 | 2.97 |
| North Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.6 | 2.96 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.0 | 3.99 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.0 | 3.00 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.2 | 2.52 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 4.28 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 83% | — |
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 18 | 3.4 | 1.99 |
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| MAISA North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.8 | 3.24 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.1 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.7 | 2.32 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.1 | 1.83 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | -1.60 |
| North Fall #2 Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 2.47 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 1.91 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 1.69 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.4 | 2.10 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.8 | 3.34 |
| ICSA Western Semi-Final | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.8 | 2.18 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 12.2 | 2.01 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 2.29 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.3 | 2.22 |
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.2 | 2.32 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 2.20 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.8 | 1.34 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.5 | 1.41 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.1 | 3.16 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 18.1 | 0.77 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
