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MAISA North Spring Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 53 49 102
2 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 48 69 117
3 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 72 54 126
4 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 60 74 134
5 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 84 66 150
6 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 99 78 177
7 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 88 133 221
8 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 113 145 258
9 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute RPI 151 114 265
10 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 120 164 284
11 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 153 143 296
12 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 164 151 315
13 University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 179 186 365
14 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 206 161 367
15 University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 217 220 437
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 1 1 8 2 4 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 10 9 48 Griffin Orr '15 [1-15]
Stephanie Rosenbaum '13 [1-14]
James Mullane '15 [15]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 2 4 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 4 5 8 7 4 53 Duncan Howes '15 [1-12]
Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [13-15]
Devon Furlong '13 [1-12]
Erin Ahlers '13 [13-14]
Alex Gatto '15 [15]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 3 3 1 7 DSQ 2 2 6 7 2 3 1 1 1 60 Andrew Bates '15
Cara Halm '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 3 9 2 5 5 2 10 4 9 4 3 2 10 2 2 72 Conor Cashel '14
Catherine Duggan '15
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 4 7 6 4 3 7 6 5 3 2 12 8 4 8 5 84 Nathan Fast '14
Cody Stansky '16
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 6 12 1 7 1 8 3 8 5 6 5 4 3 3 DNS 88 Emily Bicks '16
Chase Jackson '13
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 7 4 5 10 6 4 4 10 7 11 9 6 5 4 7 99 Paul Throop '12 [1-12, 15]
Matthew Sullivan '13 [13-14]
David Kagan '15 [1-12, 15]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 13 8 7 8 9 6 14 6 4 5 7 7 7 6 6 113 John Shanahan '16
Eliza Crawford '14
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 11 5 9 6 8 5 11 11 12 8 6 9 11 5 3 120 Gene Merewether '13
Amara Plaza-Jennings '15
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute RPI 10 6 10 12 10 11 7 9 10 10 8 11 14 13 10 151 Eddie Einhaus '13
Catalina Sposato '15
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 8 13 11 11 12 9 8 12 8 13 10 12 6 12 8 153 Ian Hunt '13
Nathan Fulcher '13
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 9 10 14 13 11 12 9 7 13 9 13 10 9 9 DSQ 164 Andrew Murphy '14 [1-15]
Patrick Stege '14 [1-14]
Elliot Greenwald '16 [15]
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 12 11 12 9 13 10 12 13 11 12 11 14 12 11 DNS 179 Chantal Hearst '12
Caroline Fraser '15
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 15 11 206 Dylan Russell '13
Corbin Anderson '13
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 15 14 13 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 217 James Haley Iii '14
Michael Danta '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 7 1 1 2 6 2 2 3 1 3 7 4 2 6 49 Lauren Turner '13 [1-14]
Michael Rivlin '13 [15]
Lindsey Ludwig '14 [1-14]
Gregory Reppucci '15 [15]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 OCS 2 5 1 2 1 1 1 6 1 2 6 8 1 54 Irene Jacqz '13
Alison Rosenfeld '13
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 4 9 5 6 3 7 3 5 2 3 2 6 2 6 3 66 Douglas Zangre '13 [1-6]
Casey Brown '16 [7-15]
James Codega '14 [1-6]
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 3 1 9 3 4 1 7 3 4 12 5 3 3 4 7 69 Luke Miller '15
Melissa Eiffert '14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 3 4 2 6 10 4 9 6 5 9 1 1 1 8 74 Austin Neuman '16 [1-10]
Samuel Watterson '16 [11-15]
Peter Heinbockel '16 [1-10]
James Gardner '16 [11-15]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 6 4 3 4 7 3 6 4 14 2 7 4 9 3 2 78 Peter Soosalu '12
William Schwenger '13
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute RPI 7 2 7 9 5 12 10 7 9 4 11 12 7 7 5 114 Kevin Petrikas '13
Lindsey Taylor '14
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 11 12 8 11 8 11 13 8 5 11 4 5 5 5 DNS 133 Morgan Beals '13
Margaret Mcmullen '13
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester 9 11 12 8 12 5 5 11 11 9 6 8 15 11 10 143 Daniel Christiani '15
Cassaundra Hobbs '13
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 10 5 11 7 14 4 9 10 7 13 8 10 8 13 DNS 145 Chris Pomerleau '16
Mackenzie Nelson '15
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 12 10 6 10 11 9 12 12 13 7 12 14 10 9 4 151 Harmen Rockler '13 [1-10, 15]
Elliot Greenwald '16 [11-14]
Kelly Brust '16 [1-10, 15]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Army 14 13 13 13 9 13 11 6 8 8 10 13 11 10 9 161 Jack Pinnell '15
Meagan Brosnan '14
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 8 8 10 12 10 14 8 13 10 14 13 9 12 12 11 164 Adrija Navarro '15 [1-8]
Sarah Gross '15 [9-15]
Utsarga Sikder '15 [1-8]
University of Toronto University of Toronto True Blue 13 6 14 14 13 8 14 14 12 10 14 11 13 14 DNS 186 Rachel Kozicz '16
Sarah Domino '13
University of Rochester University of Rochester U. Rochester 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 12 220 Shyah Miller '16
Tyler Raufeisen '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army11335577991111131315
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls14141133557799111113
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders224466881010121214141
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions335577991111131315152
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red446688101012121414113
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners557799111113131515224
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions779911111313151522446
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers668810101212141411335
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels881010121214141133557
Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteRensselaer Polytechnic Institute RPI1111131315152244668810
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester991111131315152244668
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester101012121414113355779
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange12121414113355779911
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue1313151522446688101012
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1515224466881010121214

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Army2244668810101212141415
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls1515224466881010121213
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders335577991111131315151
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions446688101012121414112
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red557799111113131515223
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners668810101212141411334
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions881010121214141133556
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers779911111313151522445
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels991111131315152244667
Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteRensselaer Polytechnic Institute RPI12121414113355779910
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Rochester101012121414113355778
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester U. Rochester111113131515224466889
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange1313151522446688101011
University of TorontoUniversity of Toronto True Blue14141133557799111112
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers11335577991111131314
School / Team SkipperCrew
Colgate University Colgate University Emily Bicks '16 Chase Jackson '13
Raiders Morgan Beals '13 Margaret Mcmullen '13
Columbia University Columbia University Conor Cashel '14 Catherine Duggan '15
Lions Irene Jacqz '13 Alison Rosenfeld '13
Cornell University Cornell University Duncan Howes '15 [1-12]
Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [13-15]		 Devon Furlong '13 [1-12]
Erin Ahlers '13 [13-14]
Alex Gatto '15 [15]
Big Red Lauren Turner '13 [1-14]
Michael Rivlin '13 [15]		 Lindsey Ludwig '14 [1-14]
Gregory Reppucci '15 [15]
Penn State University Penn State University John Shanahan '16 Eliza Crawford '14
Nittany Lions Chris Pomerleau '16 Mackenzie Nelson '15
Princeton University Princeton University Gene Merewether '13 Amara Plaza-Jennings '15
Tigers Adrija Navarro '15 [1-8]
Sarah Gross '15 [9-15]		 Utsarga Sikder '15 [1-8]
Queen's University Queen's University Paul Throop '12 [1-12, 15]
Matthew Sullivan '13 [13-14]		 David Kagan '15 [1-12, 15]
Gaels Peter Soosalu '12 William Schwenger '13
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Eddie Einhaus '13 Catalina Sposato '15
RPI Kevin Petrikas '13 Lindsey Taylor '14
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Ian Hunt '13 Nathan Fulcher '13
Rochester Daniel Christiani '15 Cassaundra Hobbs '13
Syracuse University Syracuse University Andrew Murphy '14 [1-15] Patrick Stege '14 [1-14]
Elliot Greenwald '16 [15]
Orange Harmen Rockler '13 [1-10, 15]
Elliot Greenwald '16 [11-14]		 Kelly Brust '16 [1-10, 15]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Andrew Bates '15 Cara Halm '16
Mariners Austin Neuman '16 [1-10]
Samuel Watterson '16 [11-15]		 Peter Heinbockel '16 [1-10]
James Gardner '16 [11-15]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Dylan Russell '13 Corbin Anderson '13
Army Jack Pinnell '15 Meagan Brosnan '14
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Griffin Orr '15 [1-15] Stephanie Rosenbaum '13 [1-14]
James Mullane '15 [15]
Bulls Luke Miller '15 Melissa Eiffert '14
University of Rochester University of Rochester James Haley Iii '14 Michael Danta '14
U. Rochester Shyah Miller '16 Tyler Raufeisen '15
University of Toronto University of Toronto Chantal Hearst '12 Caroline Fraser '15
True Blue Rachel Kozicz '16 Sarah Domino '13
Webb Institute Webb Institute Nathan Fast '14 Cody Stansky '16
Clippers Douglas Zangre '13 [1-6]
Casey Brown '16 [7-15]		 James Codega '14 [1-6]

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →