Cornell University '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.64 (fleet 2.26) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–27 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 35–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 1–13 against 2.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.45 | 1.17 | 1–13 | 2.6 | −1.27 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.9 | 1.97 |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 83% | — |
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| MAISA North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 1.63 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | 1.79 |
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.7 | 0.08 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.8 | 1.66 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.5 | 2.73 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.3 | 2.21 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 1.12 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 16.5 | 1.72 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.1 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 15.7 | 0.87 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 16.9 | 0.60 |
| MAISA North #1 Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.4 | 1.54 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 1.91 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.1 | 2.01 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 2.00 |
| Cary-Price Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | -0.67 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard/ Owen Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.2 | 2.43 |
| Greater New York Dinghy | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.4 | 1.22 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.3 | 1.08 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | 1.95 |
| St. Mary's Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.8 | 1.70 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.1 | 1.29 |
| Maisa Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.7 | 2.57 |
| Maisa Club S | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.3 | 1.43 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 2.20 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard | Crew | B | 12 | 11.4 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.2 | 1.23 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.9 | 1.90 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 17.7 | 0.95 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
