North Spring Qualifier

HostCornell
Date04/02/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Cornell University	Big Red	34	28	62
2	Columbia University	Lions	45	35	80
3	Queen's University	Gaels	39	48	87
4	Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	106	79	185
5	Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	112	75	187
6	Colgate University	Colgate	82	107	189
7	Hamilton College	Hamilton	100	119	219
8	Webb Institute	Webb Institute	96	126	222
9	University of Buffalo	Buffalo	127	102	229
10	U. S. Military Academy	Army	96	144	240
11	Syracuse University	Orange	148	122	270
12	University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	145	172	317
13	University of Rochester	U. Rochester	155	195	350
14	Skidmore College	Skidmore	181	175	356

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Cornell University	Big Red	1	2	5	4	1	1	1	3	10	1	1	2	1	1	34	Philip Alley '12 [1-14] Juliet Levine '14 [1-4, 7-14] Conor Cashel '14 [5-6]
Queen's University	Gaels	5	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	1	6	3	5	3	4	39	Peter Soosalu '12 Joshua Brown '11
Columbia University	Lions	3	3	3	1	RDG	6	6	1	5	3	2	1	2	6	45	Billy Hines '12 Kerry Morrison '11
Colgate University	Colgate	2	DNF	6	9	6	10	10	4	2	2	4	3	7	2	82	Jeffrey Gordon '13 Chase Jackson '13
Webb Institute	Webb Institute	4	6	8	5	7	7	8	5	9	5	7	10	5	10	96	James Codega '14 Michael Larose '13
U. S. Military Academy	Army	13	4	2	7	5	9	11	11	8	7	6	4	6	3	96	Alexander Lovo '11 Peter Hudelson '11
Hamilton College	Hamilton	7	7	4	11	9	8	5	9	3	9	9	6	4	9	100	William Mcivor '12 [1-6] Julie Webster '11 [7-14] John Boudreau '14 [1-6] Hannah Allen '14 [7-14]
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	8	8	10	3	4	11	4	6	6	8	11	11	11	5	106	Lilian Neville '12 Lindsey Taylor '14
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	9	10	7	12	10	4	7	8	4	4	5	9	DSQ	8	112	Roy Ingham '13 Olivia Robertson '15
University of Buffalo	Buffalo	12	12	DSQ	8	8	3	9	10	7	10	10	7	9	7	127	Nick Ventrilla '12 Melissa Eiffert '14
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	10	11	OCS	10	13	14	3	12	11	11	8	8	8	11	145	Alexandre Gareau '11
Syracuse University	Orange	6	5	12	13	3	5	13	13	12	14	13	13	13	13	148	Andrew Murphy '14 [1-6] Patrick Stege '14 [7-14] Everett Spear '14 [1-6]
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	11	9	9	6	11	12	12	7	14	12	14	12	12	14	155	Nicholas Troche '11 Joe Franco '14
Skidmore College	Skidmore	14	13	11	14	12	13	DNS	DNS	13	13	12	14	10	12	181	Caitlin Hoey '14 Brendan Calafiore '11

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Cornell University	Big Red	3	2	3	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	4	3	2	2	28	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-4, 7-14] Vincent Andrews '11 [5-6] Martha Peterson '12 [1-4, 7-14] Della Bradt '13 [5-6]
Columbia University	Lions	1	5	1	3	2	5	4	1	4	2	1	2	3	1	35	David Coplon '12 Marie Johnson '12
Queen's University	Gaels	4	1	2	2	3	6	3	4	2	4	3	4	6	4	48	Paul Throop '12 Gregory Harries '13
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	2	3	4	7	5	DNS	8	6	6	5	2	5	1	6	75	Nathan Fulcher '13 Chelsea Lahna '11
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	9	8	5	4	8	DNS	1	3	3	3	12	1	4	3	79	Kevin Petrikas '13 [1-2] Eddie Einhaus '13 [3-14] Eddie Einhaus '13 [1-2] Kevin Petrikas '13 [3-14]
University of Buffalo	Buffalo	7	6	6	9	7	2	5	8	12	7	8	9	7	9	102	Robert Handler '13 Dave Brusa '14
Colgate University	Colgate	6	4	9	13	9	DNS	6	5	5	6	6	7	9	7	107	Leah Feldman '14 [1-6, 11-14] Caroline Libby '14 [7-10] Margaret Mcmullen '13 [1-2, 5-6, 11-14] Lauren Radigan '13 [3-4, 7-10]
Hamilton College	Hamilton	5	7	8	10	4	3	9	10	9	12	10	12	10	10	119	James Mcmanus '13 [1-6] Nathan Burbank '11 [7-14] Jacquelyn Jasuta '14 [1-6] Sophie Hays '13 [7-14]
Syracuse University	Orange	11	10	DNS	11	10	DNS	7	7	7	8	5	6	5	5	122	Kenneth Walz '11 [1-6] Harmen Rockler '13 [7-14] Alexandra Cianciosi '12 [1-2, 7-14] Patrick Stege '14 [3-6]
Webb Institute	Webb Institute	8	9	7	6	6	4	13	11	8	10	9	11	13	11	126	Troy Zangle '13 [1-14] Marc Smith '13 [1-6] Donald Rickerson '13 [7-14]
U. S. Military Academy	Army	13	13	12	5	DNS	DNS	12	9	10	9	7	8	8	8	144	Phillip Weigand '13 Dylan Russell '13
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	10	12	13	12	DNS	DNS	10	12	13	11	11	13	12	13	172	Clarity Nicoll '13 Guy Holmwood-Bramwell '11
Skidmore College	Skidmore	12	14	10	DNF	DNS	DNS	11	13	11	13	13	10	11	12	175	Benjamin Goldlust '14 Zoe Bent '13
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	DNF	11	11	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	195	Adam Bossert '13

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
U. S. Military Academy Army	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Buffalo Buffalo	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Colgate University Colgate	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Columbia University Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Cornell University Big Red	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Hamilton College Hamilton	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
Queen's University Gaels	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6
University of Rochester U. Rochester	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Skidmore College Skidmore	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Syracuse University Orange	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Webb Institute Webb Institute	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
U. S. Military Academy Army	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
University of Buffalo Buffalo	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Colgate University Colgate	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Columbia University Lions	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Cornell University Big Red	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
Hamilton College Hamilton	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5
Queen's University Gaels	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
University of Rochester U. Rochester	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Skidmore College Skidmore	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Syracuse University Orange	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Webb Institute Webb Institute	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Colgate University	Jeffrey Gordon '13	Chase Jackson '13
Colgate	Leah Feldman '14 [1-6, 11-14] Caroline Libby '14 [7-10]	Margaret Mcmullen '13 [1-2, 5-6, 11-14] Lauren Radigan '13 [3-4, 7-10]
Columbia University	Billy Hines '12	Kerry Morrison '11
Lions	David Coplon '12	Marie Johnson '12
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12 [1-14]	Juliet Levine '14 [1-4, 7-14] Conor Cashel '14 [5-6]
Big Red	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-4, 7-14] Vincent Andrews '11 [5-6]	Martha Peterson '12 [1-4, 7-14] Della Bradt '13 [5-6]
Hamilton College	William Mcivor '12 [1-6] Julie Webster '11 [7-14]	John Boudreau '14 [1-6] Hannah Allen '14 [7-14]
Hamilton	James Mcmanus '13 [1-6] Nathan Burbank '11 [7-14]	Jacquelyn Jasuta '14 [1-6] Sophie Hays '13 [7-14]
Queen's University	Peter Soosalu '12	Joshua Brown '11
Gaels	Paul Throop '12	Gregory Harries '13
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Lilian Neville '12	Lindsey Taylor '14
Rensselaer	Kevin Petrikas '13 [1-2] Eddie Einhaus '13 [3-14]	Eddie Einhaus '13 [1-2] Kevin Petrikas '13 [3-14]
Rochester Institute of Technology	Roy Ingham '13	Olivia Robertson '15
Rochester	Nathan Fulcher '13	Chelsea Lahna '11
Skidmore College	Caitlin Hoey '14	Brendan Calafiore '11
Skidmore	Benjamin Goldlust '14	Zoe Bent '13
Syracuse University	Andrew Murphy '14 [1-6] Patrick Stege '14 [7-14]	Everett Spear '14 [1-6]
Orange	Kenneth Walz '11 [1-6] Harmen Rockler '13 [7-14]	Alexandra Cianciosi '12 [1-2, 7-14] Patrick Stege '14 [3-6]
U. S. Military Academy	Alexander Lovo '11	Peter Hudelson '11
Army	Phillip Weigand '13	Dylan Russell '13
University of Buffalo	Nick Ventrilla '12	Melissa Eiffert '14
Buffalo	Robert Handler '13	Dave Brusa '14
University of Ottawa	Alexandre Gareau '11
University of Ottawa	Clarity Nicoll '13	Guy Holmwood-Bramwell '11
University of Rochester	Nicholas Troche '11	Joe Franco '14
U. Rochester	Adam Bossert '13
Webb Institute	James Codega '14	Michael Larose '13
Webb Institute	Troy Zangle '13 [1-14]	Marc Smith '13 [1-6] Donald Rickerson '13 [7-14]

Conditions — 04/02/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1001.4 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.8 kn

avg · max 11.1 kn

Gusts to 29.0 kn

From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1001.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Cornell: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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