Cornell Fall Open

HostCornell
Date09/08/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Buffalo	Buffalo	10	17	27
2	Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	22	10	32
3	Webb Institute	Clippers	23	16	39
4	Cornell University	Big Red	31	8	39
5	Syracuse University	Orange	19	21	40
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	15	26	41
7	Fordham University	Rams	30	32	62
8	Ocean County College	Vikings	32	36	68
9	Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	33	44	77
10	Villanova University	Wildcats	41	38	79
11	Princeton University	Tigers	45	40	85
12	Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	35	51	86
13	University of Rochester	U. Rochester	50	42	92
14	Colgate University	Colgate	42	52	94
15	U. S. Military Academy	Army	55	57	112
16	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	64	57	121

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
University of Buffalo	Buffalo	4	1	2	3	10	Griffin Orr '15 Melissa Eiffert '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	2	9	3	1	15	Eddie Cox '16 [1-2] Brendan O'Leary '16 [3-4] Megan Barden '16 [1-2]
Syracuse University	Orange	10	3	4	2	19	Andrew Murphy '14 Patrick Stege '14
Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	1	13	1	7	22	Gerard Tonachel '13 Mackenzie Mcguckin '16
Webb Institute	Clippers	8	2	7	6	23	James Codega '14 Michael Larose '13
Fordham University	Rams	5	8	5	12	30	Matthew Winter '14 Dan Canziani '14
Cornell University	Big Red	11	4	6	10	31	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-2] Colin Keil '15 [3-4] Lindsey Ludwig '14 [1-2] Juliet Levine '14 [3-4]
Ocean County College	Vikings	13	5	10	4	32	Zachary Schippe '14 Nicholas Rinaldi '14
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	7	10	8	8	33	Daniel Christiani '15 [1-2] Peter Webster '16 [3-4] Cassaundra Hobbs '13 [1-2] Olivia Robertson '15 [3-4]
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	6	12	12	5	35	Kevin Petrikas '13 Catalina Sposato '15
Villanova University	Wildcats	9	6	9	RAF	41	Scott Barnhill '14 Caroline Carney '16
Colgate University	Colgate	12	7	14	9	42	Jeffrey Gordon '13 [1-2] Emily Bicks '16 [3-4] Chase Jackson '13 [1-2]
Princeton University	Tigers	3	15	13	14	45	Sarah Gross '15 Andrew Werner '14
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	14	14	11	11	50	Kathryn Luly '14 James Haley Iii '14
U. S. Military Academy	Army	15	11	16	13	55	Jack Pinnell '15 Roberta Woronowicz '14
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	DNF	DNS	15	15	64	Mackenzie Nelson '15 Ashley Zenerovitz '13

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Cornell University	Big Red	1	1	2	4	8	Jennifer Borshoff '15 [1-4] Claire Riedman '16 [1-2] Della Bradt '13 [3-4]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	3	2	4	1	10	Christian Geary '14 Lara Paul '15
Webb Institute	Clippers	5	6	3	2	16	Wesley Yland '15 [1-2] Casey Brown '16 [3-4] Marc Smith '13 [1-2] Cody Stansky '16 [3-4]
University of Buffalo	Buffalo	2	5	7	3	17	Luke Miller '15 Kishen Das '14
Syracuse University	Orange	6	3	5	7	21	Nicholas Pardini '16 Tenley Bands '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	4	4	1	DSQ	26	Stewart Draheim '16 [1-2] William Godfrey '16 [3-4] Allison Aughtry '16 [1-2] Ema Johnson '16 [3-4]
Fordham University	Rams	7	7	9	9	32	Mia Cooper '14 Mary Hamilton '14
Ocean County College	Vikings	9	8	11	8	36	Jennifer Kempton '13 Kyle Donnelly '14
Villanova University	Wildcats	8	13	6	11	38	Alex Heid '15 Anne Kuphal '16
Princeton University	Tigers	13	14	8	5	40	Lucy Cobbs '14 Greta Hayes '14
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	10	10	10	12	42	Matthew Pavlos '15 Kelly Rousmaniere '14
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	12	9	13	10	44	Ross Swerling '16 [1-2] William Lawrie '17 [3-4] Kent Derbyshire '16 [1-2]
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Rensselaer	11	12	14	14	51	Logan Shire '16 Kenneth Lush '14
Colgate University	Colgate	DNS	DNS	12	6	52	Morgan Beals '13 Andrea Liptack '13
U. S. Military Academy	Army	14	15	15	13	57	Victor Ladd '15 Jiung Kim '15
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	15	11	16	15	57	Evan Wall '15 David Mattson '14

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
U. S. Military Academy Army	1	1	3	3
University of Buffalo Buffalo	14	14	12	12
Colgate University Colgate	2	2	16	16
Cornell University Big Red	3	3	5	5
Fordham University Rams	4	4	2	2
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	5	7	7
Ocean County College Vikings	6	6	4	4
Penn State University Nittany Lions	8	8	6	6
Princeton University Tigers	7	7	9	9
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer	11	11	13	13
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	9	9	11	11
University of Rochester U. Rochester	10	10	8	8
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens	12	12	10	10
Syracuse University Orange	13	13	15	15
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	1	1
Webb Institute Clippers	16	16	14	14

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
U. S. Military Academy Army	2	2	4	4
University of Buffalo Buffalo	13	13	11	11
Colgate University Colgate	1	1	15	15
Cornell University Big Red	4	4	6	6
Fordham University Rams	3	3	1	1
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6	6	8	8
Ocean County College Vikings	5	5	3	3
Penn State University Nittany Lions	7	7	5	5
Princeton University Tigers	8	8	10	10
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer	12	12	14	14
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	10	10	12	12
University of Rochester U. Rochester	9	9	7	7
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens	11	11	9	9
Syracuse University Orange	14	14	16	16
Villanova University Wildcats	16	16	2	2
Webb Institute Clippers	15	15	13	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Colgate University	Jeffrey Gordon '13 [1-2] Emily Bicks '16 [3-4]	Chase Jackson '13 [1-2]
Colgate	Morgan Beals '13	Andrea Liptack '13
Cornell University	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-2] Colin Keil '15 [3-4]	Lindsey Ludwig '14 [1-2] Juliet Levine '14 [3-4]
Big Red	Jennifer Borshoff '15 [1-4]	Claire Riedman '16 [1-2] Della Bradt '13 [3-4]
Fordham University	Matthew Winter '14	Dan Canziani '14
Rams	Mia Cooper '14	Mary Hamilton '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eddie Cox '16 [1-2] Brendan O'Leary '16 [3-4]	Megan Barden '16 [1-2]
Statesmen	Stewart Draheim '16 [1-2] William Godfrey '16 [3-4]	Allison Aughtry '16 [1-2] Ema Johnson '16 [3-4]
Ocean County College	Zachary Schippe '14	Nicholas Rinaldi '14
Vikings	Jennifer Kempton '13	Kyle Donnelly '14
Penn State University	Mackenzie Nelson '15	Ashley Zenerovitz '13
Nittany Lions	Evan Wall '15	David Mattson '14
Princeton University	Sarah Gross '15	Andrew Werner '14
Tigers	Lucy Cobbs '14	Greta Hayes '14
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute	Kevin Petrikas '13	Catalina Sposato '15
Rensselaer	Logan Shire '16	Kenneth Lush '14
Rochester Institute of Technology	Daniel Christiani '15 [1-2] Peter Webster '16 [3-4]	Cassaundra Hobbs '13 [1-2] Olivia Robertson '15 [3-4]
Rochester	Ross Swerling '16 [1-2] William Lawrie '17 [3-4]	Kent Derbyshire '16 [1-2]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Gerard Tonachel '13	Mackenzie Mcguckin '16
Stevens	Christian Geary '14	Lara Paul '15
Syracuse University	Andrew Murphy '14	Patrick Stege '14
Orange	Nicholas Pardini '16	Tenley Bands '14
U. S. Military Academy	Jack Pinnell '15	Roberta Woronowicz '14
Army	Victor Ladd '15	Jiung Kim '15
University of Buffalo	Griffin Orr '15	Melissa Eiffert '14
Buffalo	Luke Miller '15	Kishen Das '14
University of Rochester	Kathryn Luly '14	James Haley Iii '14
U. Rochester	Matthew Pavlos '15	Kelly Rousmaniere '14
Villanova University	Scott Barnhill '14	Caroline Carney '16
Wildcats	Alex Heid '15	Anne Kuphal '16
Webb Institute	James Codega '14	Michael Larose '13
Clippers	Wesley Yland '15 [1-2] Casey Brown '16 [3-4]	Marc Smith '13 [1-2] Cody Stansky '16 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/08/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1001.6 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.7 kn

avg · max 14.0 kn

Gusts to 36.2 kn

From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.7 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1001.6 hPa Rain0.45 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn · NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cornell: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.29 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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