University of Buffalo '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.91 (fleet 2.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–31 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–25 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (7 matches) the record is 1–6 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.78 | 1.94 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.85 | 0.2 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.3 | 4.16 |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 2.35 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.7 | 1.81 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 16.1 | 1.39 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 3.36 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 15.5 | 1.97 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.6 | 4.03 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 2.87 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 1.99 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.3 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.0 | — |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.3 | 3.02 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.5 | 2.69 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.4 | 3.39 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.5 | 1.77 |
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.0 | 4.48 |
| North Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.9 | 3.31 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.4 | 1.99 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.0 | 3.52 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| MAISA North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.2 | 2.99 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.1 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.2 | 1.90 |
| 66th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 3.06 |
| North Fall #2 Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.7 | 2.38 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.2 | 2.02 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.0 | 2.20 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 3.36 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.7 | 2.31 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Buckeye Intersectional | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.3 | 3.83 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| North 2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 1.92 |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 2.03 |
| MAISA North #1 Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.2 | 2.48 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.8 | 1.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
