OCC Spring Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 10 37 47
2 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 56 21 77
3 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 40 49 89
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 25 65 90
5 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 78 32 110
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 48 63 111
7 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 62 52 114
8 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 55 78 133
9 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 77 68 145
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Griffin Orr '15
Melissa Eiffert '14
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 5 25 Bill Parker '14
Diana Kong-Wasielewski '14
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 4 6 4 7 5 3 2 4 3 2 40 David Alldian '17 [1-10]
Julianna Lee '17 [1-2]
Jennifer White '16 [3-10]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 7 5 7 5 3 5 3 5 5 3 48 Caroline Garth '17
Nina Kaledin '16
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 3 3 5 3 9 6 6 8 4 8 55 Paul Stevens '14 [1-10]
Alissa Ridarick '14 [1-2]
Courtney Brooks '16 [3-10]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 5 4 6 8 4 9 5 3 8 4 56 Ted Wingender '14
Brittany Earley '16
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 8 3 4 7 4 9 7 7 7 62 Chris Myers '15
Tracy Venella '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 9 DNF 8 6 8 8 7 6 9 6 77 Eliza Crawford '14
William Blake '17
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 8 7 9 9 6 7 8 9 6 9 78 Laura Maranto '14
Anna Quincy '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 4 1 1 1 1 4 3 4 1 1 21 Liam Boyle '16
Alexandra Stapienski '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 3 3 7 2 1 2 1 4 4 32 Paolo Bertolotti '16
Nicolas Leeper '14
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 2 DNF 4 2 5 2 1 2 6 3 37 Rory Mess '16
Emily Hann '17
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 7 4 8 4 6 3 5 3 7 2 49 Casey Jackson '17 [1-10]
Jennifer White '16 [1-2]
Andrew Graffeo '17 [3-10]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 3 DNF 6 3 3 6 6 6 3 6 52 Jeffrey Proko '18
Elizabeth Jarvie '18
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 6 DNF 7 5 7 9 4 5 5 5 63 Maxwell Ryder '16
Cruz Vargas '15
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 8 2 5 9 4 5 9 8 8 7 65 Chris Anderson '16
Emily Meehan '17
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 9 DNF 2 6 8 8 7 7 2 9 68 Charles Herlihy '14
Amanda Gebhart '16
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 1 DNF 9 8 9 7 8 9 9 8 78 Brogan Savage '15 [1-10]
Rachel Armstrong '14 [1-2]
Lauren Cane '14 [3-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls6677889911
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1122334455
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons2233445566
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth3344556677
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings4455667788
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions5566778899
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers7788991122
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats8899112233
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe9911223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls15151616171718181010
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions10101111121213131414
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11111212131314141515
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth12121313141415151616
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings13131414151516161717
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions14141515161617171818
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers16161717181810101111
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats17171818101011111212
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe18181010111112121313

Conditions — 04/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.6 kn
avg  ·  max 14.4 kn
Gusts to 30.7 kn
From WNW (291°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1011.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 18 kn · S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ocean County: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.47 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ocean County by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Ocean County).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →