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Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 124
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 155
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 179
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 246
5 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 365
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 418
7 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 488
8 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 545
9 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 568
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 4 1 7 3 7 4 5 4 53 Sean Golden '16 [1-12]
Greg Martinez '18 [13-18]
Hollis Dana '16 [1-12]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red A 3 3 3 1 7 5 3 5 2 3 2 6 1 4 2 9 1 1 61 Duncan Howes '15
Claire Riedman '16
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 2 5 1 2 4 4 2 4 4 5 5 8 3 7 5 3 2 5 71 Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 [1-12]
Katia Dasilva '15 [13-18]
Genevieve Burgoyne '14 [1-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 5 2 4 8 3 2 4 9 5 4 7 3 4 1 3 2 3 7 76 Philip Youngberg '15
Aaron Hull '16
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 4 4 6 4 1 3 5 7 1 1 3 2 6 2 4 5 13 8 79 Charles Peck '15
Karen Vargas '16
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red B 6 8 7 5 5 8 9 3 9 7 1 4 9 8 13 7 6 3 118 Collin Clark '14
Sonia Guior '15
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 10 6 5 6 8 9 6 6 8 9 9 5 5 5 1 1 12 9 120 Benjaim Helfand '16 [1-12]
Ian Connors '13 [13-18]
Henry Young '16 [1-12]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 7 7 9 10 6 7 7 8 6 6 8 7 2 10 12 8 4 2 126 Richard Sant '13
Sarah Mccormack '14
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats A 11 11 12 9 9 6 8 1 7 8 6 9 8 9 8 10 11 11 154 Domenic Re '15
Sarah Warden '15
Columbia University Columbia University Lions A 12 10 11 15 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 10 11 DNF 9 12 9 6 200 Laura Maranto '14
Josiah Hyatt '15
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats B 8 9 10 13 10 12 12 14 14 11 11 12 12 12 14 11 16 10 211 Jimmy Muller '16
Alex Heid '15
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 15 13 17 17 12 10 14 12 16 12 16 13 10 6 6 6 7 13 215 Matthias Chia '15
Roger Garcia Valls '13
Columbia University Columbia University Lions B 9 12 8 7 18 17 10 13 13 13 10 11 13 11 11 17 10 15 218 Nathaniel Byerly '11
Kelsey Burns '16
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies A 16 14 13 11 15 13 13 11 11 14 15 15 14 14 10 16 14 12 241 George Uehling '15
Grace Bule '16
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers B 17 15 15 14 16 15 15 18 15 16 14 14 15 15 17 13 8 14 266 Justin Plott '13
Alan Ghandi '15
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 13 18 18 12 13 16 DNS 17 12 15 12 16 16 13 16 14 17 16 273 Calvert Holt '13
Shuchun Wang '13
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers A 18 17 14 18 17 14 DNF 16 DNF 18 17 17 17 16 15 15 18 17 302 Samuel Kraft '15
Andrew Kelley '15
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies B 14 16 16 16 14 DNF DNF 15 17 17 DNF 18 18 17 18 18 15 18 304 Benjamin Hayes '16
Shannon Herrity '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111111111111111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red222222222222222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials131313131313131313131313131313131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas333333333333333333
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers444444444444444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen666666666666666666
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers777777777777777777
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats888888888888888888
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies999999999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions101010101010101010101010101010101010
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red111111111111111111111111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials141414141414141414141414141414141414
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas121212121212121212121212121212121212
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers555555555555555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen151515151515151515151515151515151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161616161616161616161616161616161616
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats171717171717171717171717171717171717
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies181818181818181818181818181818181818

Conditions — 04/20/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 37%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →