Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/15/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	15–0
2	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–5
3	Cornell University	Big Red 1	9–6
4	Cornell University	Big Red 2	5–10
5	Webb Institute	Clippers	4–11
6	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,456 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 45 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.467 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1	8.99 school +0.36	Kyle Burgess / Julia Monro Edmund Cooper / Elizabeth Dennison 2.96 Thomas Galster / Grace Mcdougall 2.67	88%	15–0 (100%)	+1.7
2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	3	6.40 school −0.46	Rachel Austin / Grace Mason Lee Dumaliang / Cady Johnson 2.45 Ethan Lounsbury / Kaylie Gallagher	41%	10–5 (67%)	+3.9
3	Cornell University Big Red 1	2	8.48 school +0.15	Duncan Howes / Julie Barbera 2.88 Matthew Schofield / Ryan Buccellato Alex Woloshyn / Perry Goodman	81%	9–6 (60%)	−3.2
4	Cornell University Big Red 2	4	6.13 school +0.15	Daniel Birmingham / Rebecca Mount Collin Clark / Sonia Guior 1.76 Colin Keil / Gregory Reppucci 2.16	35%	5–10 (33%)	−0.2
5	Webb Institute Clippers	6	5.63 school +0.15	Alex Dzinbal / Ian Lawson Casey Brown / Zachary Backas Nathan Fast / Cody Stansky 1.84	25%	4–11 (27%)	+0.3
6	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5	5.93 school −0.57	Matthew Nilsen / Zachery Harris 2.16 John Nothacker / Matthew Romanuski 1.70 Ben Wilkinson / Christopher Whalen 2.52	31%	2–13 (13%)	−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8.99	11.99	15–0	13.3	≥+3.00	2.8	13%
2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6.40	8.03	10–5	6.1	+1.63	4.5	1%
5	Webb Institute Clippers	5.63	5.77	4–11	3.7	+0.13	0.0	53%
4	Cornell University Big Red 2	6.13	6.05	5–10	5.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
6	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5.93	4.70	2–13	4.6	−1.23	2.1	98%
3	Cornell University Big Red 1	8.48	6.97	9–6	12.2	−1.51	3.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.56	5.56	15–0	13.3	≥+3.00	2.8	13%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.96	5.96	15–0	13.3	≥+3.00	2.8	13%
Thomas Galster	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.67	5.67	15–0	13.3	≥+3.00	2.8	13%
Rachel Austin	Old Dominion University	2.02	3.65	10–5	6.1	+1.63	4.5	1%
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	2.45	4.08	10–5	6.1	+1.63	4.5	1%
Alex Dzinbal	Webb Institute	1.58	1.71	4–11	3.7	+0.13	0.0	53%
Casey Brown	Webb Institute	1.62	1.75	4–11	3.7	+0.13	0.0	53%
Nathan Fast	Webb Institute	1.84	1.98	4–11	3.7	+0.13	0.0	53%
Daniel Birmingham	Cornell University	1.75	1.66	5–10	5.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Collin Clark	Cornell University	1.76	1.67	5–10	5.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Colin Keil	Cornell University	2.16	2.07	5–10	5.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Matthew Nilsen	SUNY Maritime College	2.16	0.94	2–13	4.6	−1.23	2.1	98%
John Nothacker	SUNY Maritime College	1.70	0.48	2–13	4.6	−1.23	2.1	98%
Ben Wilkinson	SUNY Maritime College	2.52	1.29	2–13	4.6	−1.23	2.1	98%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.88	1.37	9–6	12.2	−1.51	3.8	>99%
Matthew Schofield	Cornell University	2.60	1.09	9–6	12.2	−1.51	3.8	>99%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.32	0.81	9–6	12.2	−1.51	3.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University Monarchs	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	55%
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 2	94%
1	3	Cornell University Big Red 1	Webb Institute Clippers	94%
1	4	Cornell University Big Red 2	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	52%
1	5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Webb Institute Clippers	69%
1	6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 1	64%
1	7	Cornell University Big Red 2	Webb Institute Clippers	63%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	95%
1	9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Cornell University Big Red 1	12%	upset
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Webb Institute Clippers	97%
1	11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Cornell University Big Red 2	56%
1	12	Cornell University Big Red 1	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	92%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
1	14	Webb Institute Clippers	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	42%	upset
1	15	Cornell University Big Red 1	Cornell University Big Red 2	91%
2	16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	62%
2	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 2	95%
2	18	Cornell University Big Red 1	Webb Institute Clippers	95%
2	19	Cornell University Big Red 2	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	55%
2	20	Webb Institute Clippers	Old Dominion University Monarchs	32%	upset
2	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 1	62%
2	22	Cornell University Big Red 2	Webb Institute Clippers	62%
2	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	96%
2	24	Cornell University Big Red 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs	89%
2	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Webb Institute Clippers	97%
2	26	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Cornell University Big Red 2	57%
2	27	Cornell University Big Red 1	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	93%
2	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
2	29	Webb Institute Clippers	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	45%	upset
2	30	Cornell University Big Red 1	Cornell University Big Red 2	92%
3	31	Old Dominion University Monarchs	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	63%
3	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 2	95%
3	33	Cornell University Big Red 1	Webb Institute Clippers	95%
3	34	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	Cornell University Big Red 2	43%	upset
3	35	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Webb Institute Clippers	68%
3	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Cornell University Big Red 1	62%
3	37	Webb Institute Clippers	Cornell University Big Red 2	39%	upset
3	38	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	96%
3	39	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Cornell University Big Red 1	11%	upset
3	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Webb Institute Clippers	97%
3	41	Old Dominion University Monarchs	Cornell University Big Red 2	57%
3	42	Cornell University Big Red 1	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	94%
3	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
3	44	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	Webb Institute Clippers	54%
3	45	Cornell University Big Red 2	Cornell University Big Red 1	8%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	1	2	Clippers	Privateers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red 1	5–5	L	L	✕	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red 2	5–5	L	L	✕	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	1	2	Clippers	Privateers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Cornell University Big Red 1	6–4	L	L	✕	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red 2	6–4	L	L	✕	✕	W	W
Webb Institute Clippers	2–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	1	2	Clippers	Privateers
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red 1	3–7	L	L	✕	✕	L	W
Cornell University Big Red 2	3–7	L	L	✕	✕	L	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–4	L	L	W	W	✕	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–3	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
2	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red 2	3-5-6
3	Big Red 1	1-3-5	def.	Clippers	2-4-6
4	Big Red 2	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
5	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
6	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red 1	3-5-6
7	Big Red 2	1-3-4	def.	Clippers	2-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
9	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red 1	3-4-6
10	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
11	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red 2	3-5-6
12	Big Red 1	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
14	Clippers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
15	Big Red 1	1-3-4	def.	Big Red 2	2-5-6
16	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
17	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red 2	3-5-6
18	Big Red 1	1-3-4	def.	Clippers	2-5-6
19	Big Red 2	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
20	Clippers	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
21	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Big Red 1	2-4-5
22	Big Red 2	1-4-5	def.	Clippers	2-3-6
23	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
24	Big Red 1	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
25	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
26	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red 2	3-4-6
27	Big Red 1	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
29	Clippers	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
30	Big Red 1	2-3-5	def.	Big Red 2	1-4-6
31	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Red 2	4-5-6
33	Big Red 1	2-3-4	def.	Clippers	1-5-6
34	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red 2	3-5-6
35	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red 1	3-4-6
37	Clippers	2-3-5	def.	Big Red 2	1-4-6
38	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
39	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red 1	1-5-6
40	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
41	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red 2	3-4-6
42	Big Red 1	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
43	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
44	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
45	Big Red 2	1-3-4	def.	Big Red 1	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Edmund Cooper '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Thomas Galster '15	Elizabeth Dennison '17 Julia Monro '17 Grace Mcdougall '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Ethan Lounsbury '17 Lee Dumaliang '17 Rachel Austin '14	Kaylie Gallagher '16 Cady Johnson '16 Grace Mason '16
Cornell University	Big Red 1	Alex Woloshyn '17 Duncan Howes '15 Matthew Schofield '17	Perry Goodman '17 Julie Barbera '17 Ryan Buccellato '17
Cornell University	Big Red 2	Colin Keil '15 Collin Clark '14 Daniel Birmingham '17	Gregory Reppucci '15 Sonia Guior '15 Rebecca Mount '17
Webb Institute	Clippers	Alex Dzinbal '17 Casey Brown '16 Nathan Fast '14	Ian Lawson '17 Zachary Backas '16 Cody Stansky '16
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Ben Wilkinson '17 John Nothacker '16 Matthew Nilsen '14	Christopher Whalen '15 Matthew Romanuski '16 Zachery Harris '15

Conditions — 03/15/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.4 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 26.6 kn

From WSW (257°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1011.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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