Matthew Nilsen

Rating History

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Singlehanded1.57unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active)17Fall 2013

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
1.46 (fleet 2.03) unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) −0.01 ± 0.18
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 16–50 (24%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 201412–13—
Spring 2013214–37—
1.41.51.61.71.81.9Spring 2013Spring 2014Team Race Challenge (2013-03-23): rating 1.55, fleet rating alone 1.56, offset -0.01; record 5-13 in this boatTeam Race Challenge (2013-03-23): rating 1.55, fleet rating alone 1.56, offset -0.01; record 5-13 in this boatWashington College Team Race (2014-03-15): rating 1.72, fleet rating alone 1.77, offset -0.06; record 2-13 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 2–13 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2014-03-15Washington College Team Raceskipper2.160.942–134.6−1.232.198%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Spring 2014 Team page Season
Washington College Team Race Skipper TR 15 13% —
Harbor Cup Keelboat Crew A 10 6.7 —
Fall 2013 Team page Season
Shields Keelboat Crew A 7 4.3 —
North Fall 2 Skipper A 10 5.6 2.65
McMillan Cup Keelboat Crew A 5 3.2 —
MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded Skipper A 17 15.6 0.47
Kennedy Cup Keelboat Crew A 6 4.3 —
Spring 2013 Team page Season
Team Race Challenge Skipper TR 18 28% —
Port of LA Harbor Cup Keelboat Crew A 10 4.1 —
Georgetown Team Race Skipper TR 15 27% —
Fall 2012 Team page Season
Top 9 Regatta Skipper B 11 14.1 -2.06
Maritime Fall Open Skipper A 11 8.5 1.45
KP Dinghy Open Skipper B 16 8.8 1.67
Spring 2012 Team page Season
Greater New York Dinghy Regatta Skipper B 5 3.6 2.48
Fall 2011 Team page Season
Big Apple Classic/Jesuit Open Skipper B 12 7.2 0.85

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →