Kennedy Cup

HostNavy
Date11/08/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatNavy 44
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	26	26
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	26	26
3	University of Michigan	Wolverines	26	26
4	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	35	35
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	35	35
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	38	38
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	41	41
8	Michigan State University	Michigan State	48	48
9	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	51	51
10	College of Charleston	Cougars	65	65

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	1	DSQ	2	DSQ	1	5	2	26
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3	DSQ	3	3	2	1	8	26
University of Michigan	Wolverines	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	26
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	7	1	7	2	10	2	6	35
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	8	8	1	1	DSQ	3	5	35
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10	3	5	5	6	8	1	38
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	5	6	6	7	4	9	4	41
Michigan State University	Michigan State	2	7	9	8	9	6	7	48
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	DSQ	BKD	8	6	7	7	9	51
College of Charleston	Cougars	9	9	10	9	8	10	10	65

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperDillon Lancaster '14 CrewScott Doyle '14 CrewWilliam Antrobus '15 CrewEileen Welch '15 CrewChris Vilicich '16 CrewCorey Lynch '17 CrewAndrew Lamb '14 CrewRyan Lynch '14
College of Charleston	Cougars	SkipperStefan Kuehn '16 CrewHanna Horan '16 CrewHoward Meyers '17 CrewTaylor Penwell '14 CrewRoger Grant '15 CrewSean Hannigan '16 CrewTimothy Crann '15 CrewCharles Essi '16
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperRinchen Harrison '15 CrewRyan Collet '15 CrewSteven Bell '16 CrewGarret Lear '17 CrewShawn Shannon '16 CrewMolly Howe '15 CrewHollister Poole '15 CrewAlison Mitchell '16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperSean McLaughlin '15 CrewAndrew Morgan '15 CrewRobert Queisser '16 CrewMatthew Ferlotti '15 CrewRyan Novak-Smith '17 CrewKyle Brego '17 CrewFrancis Dougherty '15 CrewTim Dexter '14
Michigan State University	Michigan State	SkipperBill Weiland '14 CrewJohnathan Sullivan '16 CrewMeredith McKeown '17 CrewNickolas Burr '16 CrewChelsea Bohn '16 CrewNicholas Caudell '15 CrewElizabeth Dust '15 CrewConnor Corcoran '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperJoel Kinkel '15 CrewTravis Ochs '14 CrewEvan Kinkel '15 CrewAlexander Sharpe '16 CrewMatthew Nilsen '14 CrewTobias Fitzgerald '16 CrewNick Berger '14 CrewChalmers Pierce '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperBrian Hills '14 CrewBenjamin Arocho '14 CrewJohn Dierker '14 CrewDahnyoung McGarry '14 CrewDaniel Siders '15 CrewEmma Lutton '15 CrewNoel Cruz '15 CrewMegan Koch '16
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	SkipperArthur Bailey IV '14 CrewAndrew Groody '14 CrewColten Erickson '15 CrewJohn Kirk '16 CrewJonathan Pike '15 CrewAlexander Showell '15 CrewJacob Andrew '17 CrewJonathan Cook '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperAndrew Beeler '14 CrewRoscoe Thomas '14 CrewAlexa Ciarolla '14 CrewNicholas Woods '16 CrewKya McAlister '16 CrewJackson Niketas '16 CrewNeil McMillan '14 CrewCharles Morris '16
University of Michigan	Wolverines	SkipperAlex Ramos '15 CrewWill Cyr '14 CrewJason Doyle '14 CrewConnor Shope '15 CrewTanner DePriest '14 CrewChristopher Oliver '14 CrewKirsten Boelkins '15 CrewBraden Engstrom '16

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 7 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Alex Ramos '15	University of Michigan	7/7	1.23	2.18	+0.96	83rd → 99th	2.8	16%	3.7 / 5.5
2	Andrew Beeler '14	U. S. Naval Academy	7/7	1.67^u	2.15	+0.48	94th → 99th	0.6	46%	4.4 / 4.7
3	Dillon Lancaster '14	California Maritime Academy	7/7	1.64	3.06	+1.42	93rd → 99th	3.5	53%	4.7 / 4.7
4	Sean McLaughlin '15	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	7/7	1.11	1.34	+0.24	77th → 87th	0.2	35%	5.0 / 5.7
5	Joel Kinkel '15	SUNY Maritime College	7/7	0.88^u	1.79	+0.90	70th → 96th	2.1	34%	5.3 / 6.1
6	Brian Hills '14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7/7	1.58^u	1.21	−0.36	91st → 82nd	0.5	67%	5.4 / 4.8
7	Arthur Bailey IV '14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	7/7	0.89	1.33	+0.44	70th → 86th	0.7	43%	5.9 / 6.1
8	Bill Weiland '14	Michigan State University	7/7	0.73	0.96	+0.23	61st → 72nd	0.2	61%	6.9 / 6.4
9	Rinchen Harrison '15	Maine Maritime Academy	7/7	1.08	0.94	−0.14	77th → 72nd	0.1	96%	8.4 / 5.8
10	Stefan Kuehn '16	College of Charleston	7/7	1.42^u	-1.08	−2.51	88th → 1st	17.9	>99%	9.3 / 5.2

Conditions — 11/08/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.1 kn

avg · max 14.7 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (295°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1021.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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