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MAISA Laser Qualifier

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland John Wallace '14 3 DNS 3 2 1 9 11 1 1 1 2 6 1 4 14 1 11 4 96
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Philip Youngberg '15 1 DNS 9 3 4 3 7 15 2 2 14 10 3 3 4 4 2 2 109
Fordham University Fordham University Will Holz '17 9 DNS 5 7 14 4 4 3 3 6 11 2 8 2 13 10 13 7 142
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Daniel Lochner '15 16 DNS 4 6 19 2 1 10 4 5 12 4 9 6 6 7 3 11 146
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Joseph David '16 6 DNS 10 1 8 7 6 5 12 13 6 11 12 1 10 9 4 19 161
Cornell University Cornell University Daniel Birmingham '17 2 DNS 7 10 2 1 10 12 6 10 9 18 6 17 17 2 9 14 173
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Ethan Lounsbury '17 8 DNS 1 5 13 8 13 9 8 18 10 1 4 11 1 16 17 17 181
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Charles Peck '15 10 DNS 2 16 10 11 5 4 18 4 17 17 15 8 3 3 8 10 182
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Michael Madigan '17 4 DNS 8 14 3 14 12 2 17 9 19 16 18 9 9 6 5 3 189
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Austin Neuman '16 19 DNS 12 11 6 16 19 7 5 14 5 5 14 7 2 5 20 1 189
Webb Institute Webb Institute Isaac Kremers '17 7 DNS 15 13 15 5 9 13 10 11 15 8 5 5 11 8 15 18 204
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Chris Wilson '16 17 DNS 11 12 11 19 14 17 9 7 16 3 11 12 5 13 6 6 210
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Sean Burke '17 12 DNS 6 4 7 6 8 20 13 19 7 20 7 20 16 14 10 8 218
Syracuse University Syracuse University Andrew Murphy '14 18 DNS 14 9 9 10 3 19 7 3 18 12 2 13 15 15 14 20 222
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Ben Wilkinson '17 14 DNS 18 20 17 12 2 18 14 12 3 14 20 10 12 12 1 5 225
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Ryan Wood '17 5 DNS 16 18 5 17 15 14 20 8 1 9 13 15 7 18 19 12 233
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicholas Lachance '16 11 DNS 13 15 16 18 16 6 15 16 20 15 19 14 8 17 7 9 256
Cornell University Cornell University Philippe Williamson '16 13 DNS 17 19 12 13 17 8 11 15 4 19 16 19 20 20 16 13 273
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Matthew Nilsen '14 20 DNS 20 17 18 20 18 11 19 20 13 7 10 16 18 11 12 15 286
George Washington University George Washington University Benjaim Helfand '16 15 DNS 19 8 20 15 20 16 16 17 8 13 17 18 19 19 18 16 295

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  20 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1John Wallace '14St. Mary's College of Maryland18/182.583.39+0.8167th → 89th3.413%5.3 / 7.6
2Philip Youngberg '15U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 218/182.183.14+0.9657th → 84th4.99%6.1 / 8.8
3Will Holz '17Fordham University18/182.032.63+0.6053rd → 69th2.129%7.9 / 9.2
4Daniel Lochner '15Old Dominion University Monarchs 118/182.052.37+0.3253rd → 61st0.633%8.1 / 9.2
5Joseph David '16Old Dominion University Monarchs 218/182.042.21+0.1753rd → 58th0.247%8.9 / 9.2
6Daniel Birmingham '17Cornell University Big Red 118/181.742.00+0.2643rd → 52nd0.443%9.6 / 10.1
7Ethan Lounsbury '17Old Dominion University Big Blue18/181.581.84+0.2639th → 46th0.440%10.1 / 10.6
8Charles Peck '15U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 118/182.171.91−0.2557th → 48th0.568%10.1 / 8.9
9Austin Neuman '16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 118/181.611.47−0.1440th → 37th0.152%10.5 / 10.5
9Michael Madigan '17U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 318/182.411.74−0.6761st → 43rd3.482%10.5 / 8.1
11Isaac Kremers '17Webb Institute18/181.241.82+0.5829th → 45th2.146%11.3 / 11.6
12Chris Wilson '16Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 218/181.551.63+0.0938th → 40th0.168%11.7 / 10.7
13Sean Burke '17Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons18/181.641.00−0.6441st → 22nd2.574%12.1 / 10.4
14Andrew Murphy '14Syracuse University18/180.641.38+0.7417th → 33rd3.034%12.3 / 13.3
15Ben Wilkinson '17SUNY Maritime College Privateers 118/181.841.09−0.7546th → 25th3.982%12.5 / 9.9
16Ryan Wood '17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 218/180.671.18+0.5017th → 27th1.542%12.9 / 13.3
17Nicholas Lachance '16Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 118/181.311.11−0.2030th → 25th0.384%14.2 / 11.4
18Philippe Williamson '16Cornell University Big Red 218/180.350.73+0.3811th → 17th0.865%15.2 / 14.0
19Matthew Nilsen '14SUNY Maritime College Privateers 218/181.280.36−0.9230th → 11th5.695%15.9 / 11.4
20Benjaim Helfand '16George Washington University18/181.100.46−0.6425th → 13th2.995%16.4 / 12.0

Conditions — 09/28/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1025.8 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From ENE (58°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1025.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →