Port of LA Harbor Cup

HostCal Maritime
Date03/08/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatCatalina 37
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	21	21
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	39	39
3	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	41	41
4	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	45	45
5	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	52	52
6	California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	55	55
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	64	64
8	University of Southern California	Trojans	70	70
9	University of Michigan	Wolverines	80	80
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	84	84

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	1	1	2	1	1	5	2	2	5	1	21
College of Charleston	Cougars	5	4	3	2	3	6	7	3	1	5	39
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	2	8	6	6	2	2	4	4	3	4	41
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	6	3	7	3	4	1	9	1	8	3	45
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	3	5	5	7	7	3	5	6	9	2	52
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	4	2	1	5	10	7	1	5	10	10	55
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	DSQ	6	4	4	6	10	6	9	2	6	64
University of Southern California	Trojans	8	9	8	8	9	4	3	8	4	9	70
University of Michigan	Wolverines	7	7	10	10	5	8	8	10	7	8	80
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	9	10	9	9	8	9	10	7	6	7	84

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperMatthew Van Rensselaer '13 CrewScott Doyle '14 CrewDillon Lancaster '14 CrewAndrew Lamb '14 CrewWilliam Antrobus '15 CrewChris Vilicich '16 CrewJessica Bernhard '14
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	SkipperGregory Dair '15 CrewBianca Barnes '15 CrewTodd Peltzer '13 CrewJeffrey Tedmori '15 CrewHayley Bracken '13 CrewAndrew Healy '13 CrewSierra Marangola '15
College of Charleston	Cougars	SkipperJames Greenfield '15 CrewNathan Akers '15 CrewLuke Ackerman '14 CrewHanna Horan '16 CrewBrent Burrows '15 CrewTimothy Crann '15 CrewBrandon Folkman '16
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperAndrew McHenry '13 CrewHollister Poole '15 CrewTaylor Batton '14 CrewHarrison Bispham '13 CrewJake Newton '13 CrewDavid Markley '14 CrewMolly Howe '15
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperPatrick Walker '13 CrewOwen Wing '13 CrewJames Dempsey '13 CrewDaniel McDonald '13 CrewMatthew Nilsen '14 CrewJoel Kinkel '15 CrewEvan Kinkel '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperBenjamin Williamsz '13 CrewBrian Hills '14 CrewGabriel Patterson '15 CrewEmma Lutton '15 CrewNoel Cruz '15 CrewNicholas Capuzzi '14 CrewBenjamin Arocho '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperBryan Weisberg '13 CrewChristian Smith '13 CrewGlendon Bartlett '13 CrewPadraig O'Brien '15 CrewBrandt Clemons '15 CrewAlexa Ciarolla '14 CrewAaron Dougherty '14
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	SkipperBrian Hoover '12 CrewNicholas Weis '15 CrewAshley Hobson '13 CrewSamuel Heller '15 CrewJames Heller '15 CrewAustin Moore '13 CrewKate Andersen '15
University of Michigan	Wolverines	SkipperDavid Oliver '14 CrewThomas Etheridge '16 CrewChristopher Oliver '14 CrewAnsley Semack '14 CrewLiz Smith '14 CrewAlison Bradley '16 CrewRyan Davidson '15
University of Southern California	Trojans	SkipperCameron Hutcheson '14 CrewKendall Sanson '15 CrewBrandon Yuen '14 CrewHollis Barth '16 CrewEric Szurek '14 CrewJohn Coakley '16 CrewOlivia Gebelein '15

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	California Maritime Academy	10/10	1.67	3.22	+1.54	94th → 99th	8.0	2%	2.1 / 4.7
2	James Greenfield '15	College of Charleston	10/10	1.42^u	2.12	+0.70	88th → 99th	2.3	22%	3.9 / 5.2
3	Patrick Walker '13	SUNY Maritime College	10/10	0.62	2.09	+1.47	55th → 99th	8.8	6%	4.1 / 6.6
4	Brian Hoover '12	University of California at Irvine	10/10	1.04	1.73	+0.69	75th → 94th	2.2	20%	4.5 / 5.8
5	Andrew McHenry '13	Maine Maritime Academy	10/10	0.99	1.62	+0.62	74th → 92nd	1.9	31%	5.2 / 6.0
6	Gregory Dair '15	California State University Channel Islands	10/10	1.25	0.98	−0.27	85th → 73rd	0.3	52%	5.5 / 5.5
7	Bryan Weisberg '13	U. S. Naval Academy	10/10	1.67^u	1.17	−0.50	94th → 79th	1.3	88%	6.4 / 4.7
8	Cameron Hutcheson '14	University of Southern California	10/10	1.63	0.88	−0.75	93rd → 69th	3.9	94%	7.0 / 4.8
9	David Oliver '14	University of Michigan	10/10	0.49	0.58	+0.09	49th → 54th	0.0	78%	8.0 / 6.8
10	Benjamin Williamsz '13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10/10	1.58^u	0.18	−1.40	91st → 22nd	11.8	99%	8.4 / 4.9

Conditions — 03/08/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1011.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.3 kn

avg · max 13.0 kn

Gusts to 24.9 kn

From W (264°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1011.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Cal Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cal Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Cal Maritime: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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