University of Michigan '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33 (fleet 1.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–81 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 6–25 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 26–35 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 9–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (115 matches) the record is 42–73 against 42.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.13 | 1.71 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 1.36 | 4–12 | 5.1 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 2.10 | 2.64 | 3–12 | 2.6 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.11 | 2.41 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 5.15 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.91 | 2.59 | 5–13 | 3.1 | +0.68 | 1.0 | 17% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 2.06 | 2.13 | 8–8 | 7.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.77 | 0.50 | 9–2 | 10.2 | −1.28 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 1.67 | 1.21 | 1–11 | 1.5 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 81% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
