Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace

HostSouth Florida
Date02/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of South Florida	Bulls	15–1
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	15–1
3	George Washington University	Colonials	12–4
4	Jacksonville University	Dolphins	8–8
5	University of Michigan	Wolverines	8–8
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	8–8
7	Christopher Newport University	Captains	4–12
8	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	2–14
9	Tulane University	Green Wave	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2015-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 73 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.204 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.42 ± 0.21: an orderly event, more orderly than 86% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of South Florida Bulls	2	10.67 school −0.10, home +0.28	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.92 Benjamin Mohney / Kristen Walker 3.25 Paul Perry / Mary Guidi 3.26	86%	16–1 (94%)	+1.3
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1	10.84	Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford Alexander Stewart / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.65 David Larson / Jordan Ladd 3.66 12–0 David Larson / Paige Omura 3.63 3–2	88%	15–2 (88%)	+0.0
3	George Washington University Colonials	3	9.15 school −0.34	Kai Friesecke / Matthew Ricci Roger Dorr / Shira Golub Brendan Shanahan / Meagan Murphy 3.12	71%	12–4 (75%)	+0.6
4	Jacksonville University Dolphins	6	6.97	Ian Ikeda / Lauri Niklason Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton Peter Hidley / Anna Palmer	39%	8–8 (50%)	+1.8
5	University of Michigan Wolverines	5	7.69 school −0.06	Thomas Etheridge / Emily Gazall 2.06 Christopher Cyr / Sophie Lucente 2.38 Alex Ramos / Meredith Wiles 3.06	49%	8–8 (50%)	+0.1
6	Eckerd College Tritons	4	8.19 school −0.41	Timothy Siemers / Amanda Smith 2.87 Andrew Schoene / Shaughnessy Lindquist Geoffrey Nelson / Brooke Browning 5–7 Geoffrey Nelson / Benjamin Chafee 3–1	58%	8–8 (50%)	−1.3
7	Christopher Newport University Captains	7	6.38 school +0.12	Anders Hudson / Hannah Cantolino Xander Van Beurden / Kaitlin Welker Austin Powers / Shelby Locke 2.16 4–8 Austin Powers / Laura Kilgore 2.34 0–4	30%	4–12 (25%)	−0.8
8	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	9	4.90 school −0.16	Jacob Hafemeister / Megan Ferguson 1.59 Dylan Marohn / Alex Kraemer 1.60 Ryan Murphy / Noel Ingalls 1.38 2–8 Noel Ingalls / Ryan Murphy 0–6	11%	2–14 (12%)	+0.2
9	Tulane University Green Wave	8	5.13 school +0.10	Alexandra Payne / Addison Adams 1.51 Jessica Oswalt / Katelyn Michels 1.17 Nick Watts / Erin Chandler	13%	0–16 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	University of South Florida	10.67	11.88	16–1	14.7	+1.21	1.1	25%
4	Jacksonville University	6.97	7.88	8–8	6.2	+0.90	1.2	17%
3	George Washington University	9.15	9.54	12–4	11.4	+0.39	0.2	48%
8	Texas A&M University at Galveston	4.90	5.08	2–14	1.8	+0.18	0.0	57%
5	University of Michigan	7.69	7.76	8–8	7.9	+0.07	0.0	60%
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.84	10.84	15–2	15.0	+0.00	0.0	69%
7	Christopher Newport University	6.38	5.94	4–12	4.8	−0.44	0.2	83%
6	Eckerd College	8.19	7.52	8–8	9.3	−0.67	0.6	91%
9	Tulane University	5.13	2.13	0–16	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.92	5.13	16–1	14.7	+1.21	1.1	25%
Benjamin Mohney	University of South Florida	3.25	4.46	16–1	14.7	+1.21	1.1	25%
Paul Perry	University of South Florida	3.26	4.47	16–1	14.7	+1.21	1.1	25%
Ian Ikeda	Jacksonville University	2.23	3.14	8–8	6.2	+0.90	1.2	17%
Daniel Lawless	Jacksonville University	2.25	3.15	8–8	6.2	+0.90	1.2	17%
Peter Hidley	Jacksonville University	1.56	2.46	8–8	6.2	+0.90	1.2	17%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.12	3.50	12–4	11.4	+0.39	0.2	48%
Ryan Murphy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.38	1.66	2–8	1.7	+0.28	0.1	54%
Jacob Hafemeister	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.59	1.77	2–14	1.8	+0.18	0.0	57%
Thomas Etheridge	University of Michigan	2.06	2.13	8–8	7.9	+0.07	0.0	60%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.38	2.46	8–8	7.9	+0.07	0.0	60%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	3.06	3.13	8–8	7.9	+0.07	0.0	60%
David Larson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.66	3.66	15–2	15.0	+0.00	0.0	69%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.65	3.66	15–2	15.0	+0.00	0.0	69%
Anders Hudson	Christopher Newport University	1.18	0.74	4–12	4.8	−0.44	0.2	83%
Austin Powers	Christopher Newport University	2.16	1.72	4–12	4.8	−0.44	0.2	83%
Xander Van Beurden	Christopher Newport University	2.08	1.64	4–12	4.8	−0.44	0.2	83%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	2.87	2.20	8–8	9.3	−0.67	0.6	91%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.66	1.99	8–8	9.3	−0.67	0.6	91%
Geoffrey Nelson	Eckerd College	2.82	2.15	8–8	9.3	−0.67	0.6	91%
Alexandra Payne	Tulane University	1.51	-1.49	0–16	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%
Jessica Oswalt	Tulane University	1.17	-1.83	0–16	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%
Nick Watts	Tulane University	1.68	-1.32	0–16	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Eckerd College	Christopher Newport University	91%
1	2	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	95%
1	3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	96%
1	4	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Tulane University	49%	upset
1	5	George Washington University	Christopher Newport University	96%
1	6	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	17%	upset
1	7	University of Michigan	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
1	8	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	47%	upset
1	9	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	62%
1	10	George Washington University	Eckerd College	74%
1	11	University of Michigan	Tulane University	95%
1	12	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	13	University of Michigan	Christopher Newport University	80%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	94%
1	15	University of South Florida	George Washington University	83%
1	16	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	87%
1	17	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	18	George Washington University	Tulane University	98%
1	19	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	93%
1	20	Jacksonville University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	21	Christopher Newport University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	81%
1	22	Eckerd College	Tulane University	96%
1	23	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	95%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Jacksonville University	98%
1	25	Christopher Newport University	Tulane University	78%
1	26	Eckerd College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
1	27	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	George Washington University	85%
1	28	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	98%
1	29	University of South Florida	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	100%
1	31	George Washington University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	32	University of Michigan	Eckerd College	36%	upset
1	33	George Washington University	University of Michigan	82%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	35	University of South Florida	Tulane University	100%
1	36	University of Michigan	Jacksonville University	66%
2	38	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of South Florida	54%
2	39	George Washington University	University of Michigan	81%
2	40	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	75%
2	41	Christopher Newport University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	81%
2	42	University of South Florida	George Washington University	81%
2	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	96%
2	44	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	65%
2	45	Eckerd College	Tulane University	95%
2	46	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	95%
2	47	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	George Washington University	84%
2	48	Jacksonville University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	89%
2	49	Christopher Newport University	Tulane University	79%
2	50	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	97%
2	51	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	93%
2	52	George Washington University	Tulane University	98%
2	53	University of Michigan	Texas A&M University at Galveston	93%
2	54	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	92%
2	55	George Washington University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
2	56	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	100%
2	57	University of Michigan	Christopher Newport University	76%
2	58	University of South Florida	Christopher Newport University	98%
2	59	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
2	60	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	87%
2	61	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	63%
2	62	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
2	63	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Christopher Newport University	99%
2	64	George Washington University	Eckerd College	71%
2	65	University of Michigan	Tulane University	92%
2	66	University of South Florida	Tulane University	100%
2	67	Eckerd College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
2	68	George Washington University	Christopher Newport University	93%
2	69	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Jacksonville University	97%
2	70	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	88%
2	71	Eckerd College	Christopher Newport University	83%
2	72	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Tulane University	45%	upset
2	73	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	39%	upset
3	37	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulls	Engineers	Colonials	Dolphins	Wolverines	Tritons	Captains	Aggies	Wave
University of South Florida Bulls	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Dolphins	4–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulls	Engineers	Colonials	Dolphins	Wolverines	Tritons	Captains	Aggies	Wave
University of South Florida Bulls	7–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Dolphins	4–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	5–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	Bulls	Engineers
	University of South Florida Bulls	1–0	✕	W
	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
2	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Dolphins	3-4-5
3	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
4	Aggies	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
5	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
6	Dolphins	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
7	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
8	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
9	Dolphins	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
10	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
11	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
12	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
13	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
14	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
15	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
16	Dolphins	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
17	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
18	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
19	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
20	Dolphins	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
21	Captains	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
22	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
23	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
24	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Dolphins	2-4-5
25	Captains	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
26	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
27	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
28	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Dolphins	3-5-6
29	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
30	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
31	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
32	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
33	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
34	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
35	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
36	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Dolphins	3-4-6
38	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
39	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
40	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Dolphins	1-5-6
41	Captains	1-3-4	def.	Aggies	2-5-6
42	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
43	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
44	Dolphins	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
45	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
46	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
47	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
48	Dolphins	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
49	Captains	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
50	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Dolphins	4-5-6
51	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
52	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
53	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
54	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
55	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
56	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
57	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
58	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
59	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
60	Dolphins	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
61	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
62	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
63	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
64	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
65	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
66	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
67	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
68	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
69	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Dolphins	4-5-6
70	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Dolphins	2-4-6
71	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
72	Aggies	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
73	Dolphins	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
37	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of South Florida	Bulls	Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Paul Perry '15	Kristen Walker '17 Ali Yarbrough '16 Mary Guidi '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 David Larson '16	Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Christopher Ford '16 Jordan Ladd '17 Paige Omura '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Kai Friesecke '18 Roger Dorr '18	Meagan Murphy '15 Matthew Ricci '15 Shira Golub '18
Jacksonville University	Dolphins	Daniel Lawless '17 Ian Ikeda '17 Peter Hidley '17	Hannah Knighton '17 Lauri Niklason '16 Anna Palmer '17
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Thomas Etheridge '16	Meredith Wiles '17 Sophie Lucente '16 Emily Gazall '16
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Geoffrey Nelson '18 Timothy Siemers '16	Shaughnessy Lindquist '16 Benjamin Chafee '16 Brooke Browning '18 Amanda Smith '15
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Anders Hudson '17 Austin Powers '17 Xander Van Beurden '18	Hannah Cantolino '18 Shelby Locke '16 Laura Kilgore '17 Kaitlin Welker '17
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Dylan Marohn '16 Jacob Hafemeister '16 Noel Ingalls '16 Ryan Murphy '15	Alex Kraemer '16 Megan Ferguson '17 Ryan Murphy '15 Noel Ingalls '16
Tulane University	Green Wave	Alexandra Payne '15 Jessica Oswalt '16 Nick Watts '18	Addison Adams '17 Katelyn Michels '18 Erin Chandler '18

Conditions — 02/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 88% · Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.0 kn

avg · max 11.1 kn

Gusts to 25.3 kn

From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine2.8 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1025.6 hPa Rain0.60 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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