University of Michigan '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–80 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 6–25 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 24–35 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 9–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 4–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 41–80 against 41.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.33 | 1.90 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 1.88 | 4–12 | 5.1 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 2.43 | 2.97 | 3–12 | 2.6 | +0.54 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.36 | 2.66 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 3.06 | 5–13 | 3.1 | +0.68 | 1.0 | 17% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 2.38 | 2.46 | 8–8 | 7.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 1.12 | 9–2 | 10.2 | −1.28 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.07 | 2.05 | 4–18 | 4.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 2.02 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.6 | 1.93 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 2.62 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.8 | 2.49 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.91 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.9 | 2.44 |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 8.3 | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 1.91 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 2.87 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 18% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | A, C | 7 | 12.4 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.9 | 0.50 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.3 | 1.77 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
