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68th Timme Angsten

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 26 22 48
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 51 MRP 53 MRP 104 MRP
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 48 MRP 58 MRP 106 MRP
4 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 52 58 110
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 80 50 130
6 Washington University Washington University Bears 60 80 140
7 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 81 MRP 79 MRP 160 MRP
8 University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 98 74 172
9 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 93 87 180
10 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 85 104 189
11 Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes 112 123 235
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 1 5 1 3 1 1 1 5 1 2 26 Alex Ramos '15
Lane Tobin '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 7 1 3 1 4 2 2 1 2 4 48 MRP Charles Bocklet '18
Kelsea Kierstead '15
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 2 5 4 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 1 51 MRP Laura Wefer '16
Jennifer Burke '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 2 3 4 6 7 8 5 4 5 5 52 Emily Oltrogge '15
Emily Johnson '16
Washington University Washington University Bears 7 3 7 8 4 5 4 8 3 4 7 60 James Harvey '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Nathan Ross '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Rachel Westrate '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
James Doele '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 10 8 8 9 7 6 5 7 8 9 3 80 Jacob Bruce '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Noah Rosenthal '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Aislinn Mcmillan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Elizabeth Philip '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 4 4 6 7 5 2 7 6 7 7 6 81 MRP Bill Weiland '14
Andrew Lauten '15
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 6 2 10 11 11 6 11 6 6 8 85 Geoffrey Owens '18 [1-4, 7-11]
Connor Lynch '16 [5-6]
Kyra Martin '18 [1-4, 7-11]
Alexander Slajus '17 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 6 10 9 5 8 9 11 3 11 11 10 93 Isak Peterson '15 [1-11]
Brittni Begale '16 [1-2, 11]
Hannah Noll '15 [3-10]
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 9 9 11 6 9 8 10 9 10 8 9 98 Brenden Jacobs '16
Adam Oplustil '15
Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 112 Wyatt Richard '17
Mark Andrasek '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 7 22 Ryan Seago '14 [1-8]
Christopher Cyr '16 [9-11]
Elizabeth Wallace '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Emily Gazall '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Alison Bradley '16 [9-11]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 5 4 5 4 8 6 5 3 4 3 50 Travis Cottle '15
Michael Pauleen '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 5 3 6 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 4 53 MRP Whitney Kent '15
Katie Hall '16
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 2 4 2 6 5 4 5 6 1 58 MRP Soren Walljasper '17 [1-11]
Korina Hendricks '17 [1-8]
Erik Elliott '17 [9-11]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 6 4 3 1 5 5 4 3 9 10 8 58 Alison Kent '16 [1-8, 11]
John O'Leary '16 [9-10]
Cailin Oakes '18 [1-8, 11]
Evan Finley '15 [9-10]
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 9 8 7 7 6 2 7 7 8 8 5 74 Taylor Valentor '16 [1-11]
Carolyn Cao '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kimberly Hu '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 8 10 5 6 7 4 2 6 4 5 2 79 MRP Elizabeth Dust '15 [1-2, 5-11]
Matthew Declercq '17 [3-4]
Montana Pruett '16 [1-2, 5-11]
Christian Mcalvey '18 [3-4]
Washington University Washington University Bears 4 6 10 8 8 7 10 9 6 3 9 80 Mary Prothero '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Riley Muir '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Lisa Brausem '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jordan Cohen-Kaplan '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 87 Andre Deriaz '18 [1-11]
Anthony Tieso '17 [1-2, 7-8, 11]
Hannah Girard '18 [3-6, 9-10]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 10 9 10 104 Moritz Matzner '15 [1-11]
Haozhe Shan '17 [1-8]
Alexander Slajus '17 [9-11]
Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 DNS DNS 11 123 Alex Weber '17
Samuel Legenza '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons1010121214141616779
Great Lakes Maritime AcademyGreat Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes779911111313151517
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames11111313151517178810
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines121214141616779911
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans8810101212141416167
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers13131515171788101012
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats9911111313151517178
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers161677991111131315
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears17178810101212141416
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers141416167799111113
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers15151717881010121214

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons1111131315151717889
Great Lakes Maritime AcademyGreat Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes88101012121414161617
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames121214141616779910
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines13131515171788101011
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans9911111313151517177
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers141416167799111112
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats1010121214141616778
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers17178810101212141415
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears779911111313151516
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers15151717881010121213
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers161677991111131314
School / Team SkipperCrew
Great Lakes Maritime Academy Great Lakes Maritime Academy Wyatt Richard '17 Mark Andrasek '16
Great Lakes Alex Weber '17 Samuel Legenza '16
Michigan State University Michigan State University Bill Weiland '14 Andrew Lauten '15
Spartans Elizabeth Dust '15 [1-2, 5-11]
Matthew Declercq '17 [3-4]		 Montana Pruett '16 [1-2, 5-11]
Christian Mcalvey '18 [3-4]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jacob Bruce '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Noah Rosenthal '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Aislinn Mcmillan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Elizabeth Philip '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Wildcats Travis Cottle '15 Michael Pauleen '18
University of Chicago University of Chicago Geoffrey Owens '18 [1-4, 7-11]
Connor Lynch '16 [5-6]		 Kyra Martin '18 [1-4, 7-11]
Alexander Slajus '17 [5-6]
Maroons Moritz Matzner '15 [1-11] Haozhe Shan '17 [1-8]
Alexander Slajus '17 [9-11]
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Brenden Jacobs '16 Adam Oplustil '15
Flames Taylor Valentor '16 [1-11] Carolyn Cao '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kimberly Hu '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Alex Ramos '15 Lane Tobin '18
Wolverines Ryan Seago '14 [1-8]
Christopher Cyr '16 [9-11]		 Elizabeth Wallace '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Emily Gazall '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Alison Bradley '16 [9-11]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Emily Oltrogge '15 Emily Johnson '16
Gophers Alison Kent '16 [1-8, 11]
John O'Leary '16 [9-10]		 Cailin Oakes '18 [1-8, 11]
Evan Finley '15 [9-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charles Bocklet '18 Kelsea Kierstead '15
Badgers Soren Walljasper '17 [1-11] Korina Hendricks '17 [1-8]
Erik Elliott '17 [9-11]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Laura Wefer '16 Jennifer Burke '16
Honey Badgers Whitney Kent '15 Katie Hall '16
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Isak Peterson '15 [1-11] Brittni Begale '16 [1-2, 11]
Hannah Noll '15 [3-10]
Panthers Andre Deriaz '18 [1-11] Anthony Tieso '17 [1-2, 7-8, 11]
Hannah Girard '18 [3-6, 9-10]
Washington University Washington University James Harvey '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Nathan Ross '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Rachel Westrate '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
James Doele '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Bears Mary Prothero '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Riley Muir '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Lisa Brausem '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jordan Cohen-Kaplan '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]

Conditions — 11/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1014.4 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.7 kn
avg  ·  max 13.1 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1014.4 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn · S 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →