University of Minnesota '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.85 (fleet 2.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–7 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 13–7 against 15.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.43 | -0.52 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −2.95 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 1.48 | 12–3 | 13.2 | −0.84 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.3 | 1.69 |
| Northwestern Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 2.09 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.8 | 3.39 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.4 | 3.74 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 13.7 | 1.97 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 2.76 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 2.75 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.5 | 3.19 |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.7 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 2.67 |
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 3.60 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 15.8 | 1.60 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.1 | 4.76 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 67th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 3.39 |
| Streufert Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 3.96 |
| Pere Marquette Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.44 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.1 | 1.46 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Invite | Crew | B | 6 | 3.0 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.9 | 1.27 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.0 | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 15.0 | 1.30 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme's Tune-Up | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 3.94 |
| 66th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.9 | 1.97 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 15.3 | 1.78 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | 0.98 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.5 | 1.15 |
| 3 Division | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 2.07 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Davis Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 1.60 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
