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Gopher Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 16 11 27
2 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 9 20 29
3 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 32 21 53
4 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 27 32 59
5 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Black 52 53 105
6 Golden Eagles Golden Eagles Golden Eagles 56 MRP 58 MRP 114 MRP
7 Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 72 MRP 69 MRP 141 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 Emily Oltrogge '15
Emily Johnson '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 16 Drake Lundeen '14 [1-7]
Sarah Ellis '14 [8]
Sarah Ellis '14 [1-7]
Drake Lundeen '14 [8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 4 5 3 3 3 2 3 4 27 Lindsey Puccio '16
Teresa Westin '16
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 5 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 32 Isak Peterson '15
Anthony Tieso '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Black 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 52 Christopher Ponsonby '17 [1-8]
Tom Firmin '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Nicole Schmitz '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Golden Eagles Golden Eagles Golden Eagles 3 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 56 MRP
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 72 MRP Thomas Chesnutt '14
Ariel Worley '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 11 Wheeler J '16 [1-7]
Paige Boegeman '14 [8]
Paige Boegeman '14 [1-7]
Wheeler J '16 [8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 5 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 20 Alison Kent '16
Allison Forbes '14
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 21 Benjamin Otten '14
Hannah Noll '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 2 32 Eric Villadsen '17
Joe Lund '14
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Black 7 7 7 7 7 5 7 6 53 Bret Lindquist '15
Alexis Amenson '17
Golden Eagles Golden Eagles Golden Eagles 3 5 5 4 6 6 4 5 58 MRP
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 6 6 6 6 5 7 6 7 69 MRP Carl Byers '14
Haley Macduff '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings1122334
Golden EaglesGolden Eagles Golden Eagles2233445
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 13344556
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 24455667
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 35566778
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Black77889910
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold6677889

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings8899101011
Golden EaglesGolden Eagles Golden Eagles991010111112
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 110101111121213
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 211111212131314
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 31212131314141
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Black141411223
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold13131414112
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lawrence University Lawrence University Thomas Chesnutt '14 Ariel Worley '17
Vikings Carl Byers '14 Haley Macduff '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Drake Lundeen '14 [1-7]
Sarah Ellis '14 [8]		 Sarah Ellis '14 [1-7]
Drake Lundeen '14 [8]
Gophers 1 Wheeler J '16 [1-7]
Paige Boegeman '14 [8]		 Paige Boegeman '14 [1-7]
Wheeler J '16 [8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Emily Oltrogge '15 Emily Johnson '16
Gophers 2 Alison Kent '16 Allison Forbes '14
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Lindsey Puccio '16 Teresa Westin '16
Gophers 3 Eric Villadsen '17 Joe Lund '14
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Christopher Ponsonby '17 [1-8] Tom Firmin '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Nicole Schmitz '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Black Bret Lindquist '15 Alexis Amenson '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Isak Peterson '15 Anthony Tieso '17
Gold Benjamin Otten '14 Hannah Noll '16

Conditions — 05/10/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SE (139°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1010.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Minnesota: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.47 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →