University of Minnesota '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–6 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 8–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 8–6 against 6.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-19 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.08 | 3.38 | 8–6 | 6.5 | +1.30 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.4 | 2.47 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| MCSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 3.03 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 2.19 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.0 | 1.76 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 67th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 2.80 |
| Streufert Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 4.04 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 2.61 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 3.49 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.2 | 2.27 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.2 | -1.72 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 66th Timme Angsten Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 3.02 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 16.3 | 1.93 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 2.50 |
| 3 Division | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 2.23 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 1.02 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| WYW | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 2.61 |
| 3-Division | Crew | A | 4 | 2.2 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Tune-Up | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.7 | 0.99 |
| MCSA Single Handed Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | -2.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
