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Timme Tune-Up

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 9 17 26
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 27 45 72
3 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 41 40 81
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 65 29 94
5 Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 61 40 101
6 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 43 58 101
7 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 34 69 103
8 University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 72 54 126
9 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 32 95 127
10 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 87 84 171
11 Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 106 73 179
12 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 125 69 194
13 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 117 96 213
14 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 112 111 223
15 Miami University Miami University Miami University 91 137 228
16 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 104 130 234
17 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 122 139 261
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 George Kutschenreuter '15
Ella Stutz '13
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 7 27 Matthew Graham '13
Kirsten Corneliussen '13
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 7 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 32 Ben Otten '11
Melissa Dobrinska '13
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2 1 5 9 3 2 6 6 34 John Kinzel '14
Tulika Singh '14
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 5 7 2 6 6 5 5 5 41 Charlie Trost '12
John Buzzell '14
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 8 5 6 5 8 6 3 2 43 Ryan Grosch '14
Emma Gantzer '11
Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 3 8 8 4 7 9 DNS 4 61 Steven Catlin '11
Patrick Farrell '13
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 10 9 11 8 5 7 7 8 65 Justin Cohler '11
Matthew Sullivan '14
University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 6 6 7 7 15 10 12 9 72 Sammy Barbour '12
Michael Vittorio '12
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 11 10 13 11 13 11 8 10 87 Anna Scott '11
Madeleine Weisman '12
Miami University Miami University Miami University 15 11 10 13 10 8 11 13 91 William Andreae '13
Alex Hess '12
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 14 12 9 10 9 14 DNS DNS 104 Betsy Grant '14 [1-8]
Elizabeth Kinney '11 [1, 4-8]
Kyle Bloch '14 [2-3]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 12 14 14 DNF 11 12 13 12 106 Peter Petersen Vi '11
Charles Defever '10
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 9 13 12 12 12 RAF DNF DNS 112 Jamie Gay '11 [1-6]
Glen Ko '15 [7-8]
Conrad Eisen '14 [1-4]
Arif Sunmonu '18 [5-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 14 117 Josh Jacobson '14
Matt Mcdonald '14
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 17 17 DSQ 14 DNF DNS 9 11 122
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 13 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS 10 15 125 Nachiketa Tiwari '11 [1-6]
William Grant '12 [7-8]
Ansley Semack '14 [1-6]
Sam Denomy '12 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 2 2 2 2 BYE 5 1 17 Phillip Morley '13
Kelly Kramer '13
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 12 10 29 Michael Cornew '13 [1-6]
Amanda Leigh Snyder '10 [7-8]
Amanda Leigh Snyder '10 [1-4]
Hannah Schriesheim '11 [5-8]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 3 7 3 4 3 6 7 7 40 Aras Karaitis '12
Vytenis Karaitis '14
Marquette University Marquette University Marquette 9 9 5 6 6 2 1 2 40 Alexandra Bracken '11
Peter Mcnulty '13
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 6 3 4 7 5 3 8 9 45 David Oliver '14
Britt Wedenoja '11
University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue BYE 6 9 3 4 4 9 12 54 Rachel Barch '13
Kathryn Burt '13
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 5 4 6 DNS 8 8 3 6 58 Drake Lundeen '14 [1-8]
Sarah Ellis '14 [1-4]
Kirstin Wilson '12 [5-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4 8 DNS 5 9 DNS 4 3 69 Adelaide Davis '13 [1-8]
Peter Hiller '12 [1-4]
Lizzie Kunze '13 [5-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 10 10 11 9 13 9 2 5 69 Michael Hamel '11
Brand Koster '12
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 11 11 8 10 11 12 6 4 73 Bill Weiland '14
Sheelagh Mccarthy '13
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 5 7 8 10 10 DNF DNF 84 Michael Kang '12
Alexandra Weill '11
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee 7 12 10 DNS 12 DNF 10 8 95 Victoria Livingston '12
Jacob Kremel '13
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 12 13 DNS 12 7 5 DNF 11 96 Emily Fontaine '14 [1-2, 7-8]
William Mclaughlin '14 [3-4]
George Powell '13 [5-6]
Zachary Bannon '14 [1-2, 7-8]
Ryan Markmann '10 [3-6]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 13 14 12 11 14 11 DNS DNS 111 Glen Ko '15 [1-6]
Daniel Bartz '12 [7-8]
Daniel Bartz '12 [1-6]
Jamie Gay '11 [7-8]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats DNF DNS DNS DNS 15 7 DNS DNS 130 Kyle Bloch '14 [1-2]
Margaret Winfree '14 [3-8]
Nicole Turner '14 [1, 4-8]
Jacob Ruggles '14 [2-3]
Miami University Miami University Miami University DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 11 DNF 137 Colin Via '14 [1-8]
Marvin Mcpearson '14 [1-4]
Megan Stoll '12 [5-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 13 DNS 139
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons11333355
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini22444411
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Marquette2323818181811313
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University44666688
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Blue55777799
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize6688881111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines88101010101212
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State7799991010
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Minnesota Women991111111177
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats1010121212121818
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 11111131313132323
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 212121818181833
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 38181222266
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee33555522
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Western Michigan414111114141
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 11313232323238181
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 218184141414144

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons2222442323
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini3333558181
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Marquette41414141818166
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University66663311
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Blue55556699
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize77778855
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines999910101818
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State88887722
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Minnesota Women10101010111177
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats11111111121244
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 11212121213131111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 21313131318181010
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 311112233
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee UW Milwaukee4444991313
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Western Michigan81818181111212
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 11818181823234141
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 223232323414188
School / Team SkipperCrew
Marquette University Marquette University Steven Catlin '11 Patrick Farrell '13
Marquette Alexandra Bracken '11 Peter Mcnulty '13
Miami University Miami University William Andreae '13 Alex Hess '12
Miami University Colin Via '14 [1-8] Marvin Mcpearson '14 [1-4]
Megan Stoll '12 [5-8]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Peter Petersen Vi '11 Charles Defever '10
Michigan State Bill Weiland '14 Sheelagh Mccarthy '13
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Betsy Grant '14 [1-8] Elizabeth Kinney '11 [1, 4-8]
Kyle Bloch '14 [2-3]
Wildcats Kyle Bloch '14 [1-2]
Margaret Winfree '14 [3-8]		 Nicole Turner '14 [1, 4-8]
Jacob Ruggles '14 [2-3]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Justin Cohler '11 Matthew Sullivan '14
Wildcats 2 Michael Cornew '13 [1-6]
Amanda Leigh Snyder '10 [7-8]		 Amanda Leigh Snyder '10 [1-4]
Hannah Schriesheim '11 [5-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Josh Jacobson '14 Matt Mcdonald '14
Wildcats 3 Emily Fontaine '14 [1-2, 7-8]
William Mclaughlin '14 [3-4]
George Powell '13 [5-6]		 Zachary Bannon '14 [1-2, 7-8]
Ryan Markmann '10 [3-6]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Anna Scott '11 Madeleine Weisman '12
Maroons Michael Kang '12 Alexandra Weill '11
University of Illinois University of Illinois Jamie Gay '11 [1-6]
Glen Ko '15 [7-8]		 Conrad Eisen '14 [1-4]
Arif Sunmonu '18 [5-8]
Illini Glen Ko '15 [1-6]
Daniel Bartz '12 [7-8]		 Daniel Bartz '12 [1-6]
Jamie Gay '11 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Sammy Barbour '12 Michael Vittorio '12
Blue Rachel Barch '13 Kathryn Burt '13
University of Michigan University of Michigan Matthew Graham '13 Kirsten Corneliussen '13
Maize David Oliver '14 Britt Wedenoja '11
University of Michigan University of Michigan Nachiketa Tiwari '11 [1-6]
William Grant '12 [7-8]		 Ansley Semack '14 [1-6]
Sam Denomy '12 [7-8]
Wolverines Michael Hamel '11 Brand Koster '12
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Ryan Grosch '14 Emma Gantzer '11
Minnesota Women Drake Lundeen '14 [1-8] Sarah Ellis '14 [1-4]
Kirstin Wilson '12 [5-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin George Kutschenreuter '15 Ella Stutz '13
Badgers 1 Phillip Morley '13 Kelly Kramer '13
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin John Kinzel '14 Tulika Singh '14
Badgers 2 Adelaide Davis '13 [1-8] Peter Hiller '12 [1-4]
Lizzie Kunze '13 [5-8]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Ben Otten '11 Melissa Dobrinska '13
UW Milwaukee Victoria Livingston '12 Jacob Kremel '13
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Charlie Trost '12 John Buzzell '14
Western Michigan Aras Karaitis '12 Vytenis Karaitis '14

Conditions — 11/13/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.8 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From S (179°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.1 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 14 kn · W 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.25 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →