WYW

HostNorthwestern
Date04/09/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	19	9	28
2	University of Minnesota	Minnesota Women	25	20	45
3	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	27	29	56
4	Northwestern University	Wildcats	32	36	68
5	University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	38	31	69
6	University of Michigan	Wolverines	47	22	69
7	Western Michigan University	Western Michigan	45	28	73
8	University of Michigan	Blue	22	88	110
9	Marquette University	Marquette	63	59	122
10	University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 1	76	54	130
11	University of Michigan	Maize	43	90	133
12	University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 2	73	66	139
13	University of Illinois	Illini	76	68	144
14	University of Chicago	Maroons	72	100	172
15	Northern Michigan University	Wildcats	102	70	172
16	Carleton College	Knights	97	88	185
17	Robert Morris University Illinois	Robert Morris	100	90	190
18	Purdue University	Purdue	92	103	195

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	1	2	6	5	3	2	19	John Kinzel '14 Nicholas Burger '14
University of Michigan	Blue	5	4	4	2	1	6	22	Ryan Seago '14 Kirsten Corneliussen '13
University of Minnesota	Minnesota Women	13	1	1	1	6	3	25	Ryan Grosch '14 [1-2] Matthew Thompson '11 [3-6] Aaron Martinson '14 [1-2]
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	4	6	7	7	2	1	27	Christine Porter '11 Kelly Kramer '13
Northwestern University	Wildcats	6	7	3	3	4	9	32	Eric Defeo '12 Carolyn Fallert '12
University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	8	9	5	4	7	5	38	Adelheid Rittmeyer '13 Michelle Olvera '14
University of Michigan	Maize	2	3	13	9	9	7	43	David Oliver '14 Britt Wedenoja '11
Western Michigan University	Western Michigan	3	12	10	11	5	4	45	Charlie Trost '12 John Buzzell '14
University of Michigan	Wolverines	10	13	2	6	8	8	47	Lawrence Jau '13 Ansley Semack '14
Marquette University	Marquette	9	14	12	8	10	10	63	Patrick Farrell '13 Alexander Malinchoc '11
University of Chicago	Maroons	7	8	9	10	DNS	DNS	72	Paul Kaplan '13 Alexandra Weill '11
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 2	12	16	8	13	12	12	73	Emily Golden '13 Tony Michuda '13
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 1	14	11	14	15	11	11	76	Jeffrey Miller '12 [1-6] Lauren George '13 [1-4] Thoms Temmerman '13 [5-6]
University of Illinois	Illini	16	10	11	12	14	13	76	Jamie Gay '11 Emily Slabe '15
Purdue University	Purdue	11	5	DSQ	DSQ	DNS	DNS	92	Ken Rood '12 Kristen Rathbun '14
Carleton College	Knights	15	15	15	14	DNS	DNS	97	Catherine Townes '12 Travis Nordgaard '13
Robert Morris University Illinois	Robert Morris	17	17	17	17	13	DNF	100	William Bailey '12 [1-6] Henry Slaughter '14 [1-2] Maria Preiti '12 [3-6]
Northern Michigan University	Wildcats	18	18	16	16	15	DNS	102	Matthew Leon '13 Nicole Turner '14

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	1	1	1	1	1	4	9	Brendan Boylan '13 [1-6] Ella Stutz '13 [1-4] Gavin Hussey '11 [5-6]
University of Minnesota	Minnesota Women	2	6	3	2	5	2	20	Drake Lundeen '14 Kirstin Wilson '12
University of Michigan	Wolverines	5	3	4	7	2	1	22	Matthew Graham '13 Graham Kozak '12
Western Michigan University	Western Michigan	3	4	7	5	4	5	28	Aras Karaitis '12 Vytenis Karaitis '14
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	8	7	2	3	6	3	29	Adelaide Davis '13 Katlyn Putney '14
University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	6	5	5	6	3	6	31	Dustin Domer '13 Anthony Perez '13
Northwestern University	Wildcats	10	2	6	4	7	7	36	David Kluger '12 Zachary Bannon '14
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 1	9	9	10	10	8	8	54	Peter Roehmholdt '14 [1-6] Maria Skorcz '14 [1-4] Christopher Moore '14 [5-6]
Marquette University	Marquette	7	12	11	9	11	9	59	Alexander Brackman '11 Kevin Glauber '14
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish 2	13	10	8	8	12	15	66	Kevin Condit '13 Anne Murphy '13
University of Illinois	Illini	15	14	9	11	9	10	68	Kevan Lee Lum '14 [1-3] Alexander Loch '12 [4-6] Alexander Loch '12 [1-3] Kevan Lee Lum '14 [4-6]
Northern Michigan University	Wildcats	12	11	13	12	10	12	70	Elizabeth Kinney '11 Kendra Norton '11
Carleton College	Knights	4	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	88	Ellie Youngblood '12 James Jackson '11
University of Michigan	Blue	16	15	12	13	DNF	13	88	Brand Koster '12 Nicholas Rachmaninoff '14
University of Michigan	Maize	17	17	14	14	14	14	90	Riley Moran '14 Abigail Robinson '13
Robert Morris University Illinois	Robert Morris	18	18	15	15	13	11	90	Marvin Gomez '12 Angela Appleton '11
University of Chicago	Maroons	14	13	DNS	16	DNS	DNS	100	Christian Herwig '14 [1-6] Madeleine Weisman '12 [1-2] Peter Truong '14 [3-6]
Purdue University	Purdue	11	16	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	103	Kristen Rathbun '14 Taylor Mills '14

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Carleton College Knights	1	1	3	3	5	5
University of Chicago Maroons	2	2	4	4	570	570
University of Illinois Illini	3	3	5	5	7	7
University of Illinois - Chicago Flames					2	2
Marquette University Marquette	7	7	9	9	11	11
University of Michigan Blue	6	6	8	8	10	10
University of Michigan Maize	5	5	7	7	9	9
University of Michigan Wolverines	4	4	6	6	8	8
University of Minnesota Minnesota Women	41	41
Northern Michigan University Wildcats	10	10	12	12	41	41
Northwestern University Wildcats	11	11	13	13	6	6
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2	9	9	11	11	13	13
Purdue University Purdue	12	12	41	41
Robert Morris University Illinois Robert Morris	13	13	5705	5705
Western Michigan University Western Michigan			1	1	3	3
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	5705	5705			1	1
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2			2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Carleton College Knights	2	2	4	4	570	570
University of Chicago Maroons	3	3	5	5	7	7
University of Illinois Illini	4	4	6	6	8	8
University of Illinois - Chicago Flames			1	1	3	3
Marquette University Marquette	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Michigan Blue	7	7	9	9	11	11
University of Michigan Maize	6	6	8	8	10	10
University of Michigan Wolverines	5	5	7	7	9	9
University of Minnesota Minnesota Women	5705	5705			1	1
Northern Michigan University Wildcats	11	11	13	13	6	6
Northwestern University Wildcats	12	12	41	41
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2	10	10	12	12	41	41
Purdue University Purdue	13	13	5705	5705
Robert Morris University Illinois Robert Morris	41	41
Western Michigan University Western Michigan			2	2	4	4
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1					2	2
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Carleton College	Catherine Townes '12	Travis Nordgaard '13
Knights	Ellie Youngblood '12	James Jackson '11
Marquette University	Patrick Farrell '13	Alexander Malinchoc '11
Marquette	Alexander Brackman '11	Kevin Glauber '14
Northern Michigan University	Matthew Leon '13	Nicole Turner '14
Wildcats	Elizabeth Kinney '11	Kendra Norton '11
Northwestern University	Eric Defeo '12	Carolyn Fallert '12
Wildcats	David Kluger '12	Zachary Bannon '14
Purdue University	Ken Rood '12	Kristen Rathbun '14
Purdue	Kristen Rathbun '14	Taylor Mills '14
Robert Morris University Illinois	William Bailey '12 [1-6]	Henry Slaughter '14 [1-2] Maria Preiti '12 [3-6]
Robert Morris	Marvin Gomez '12	Angela Appleton '11
University of Chicago	Paul Kaplan '13	Alexandra Weill '11
Maroons	Christian Herwig '14 [1-6]	Madeleine Weisman '12 [1-2] Peter Truong '14 [3-6]
University of Illinois	Jamie Gay '11	Emily Slabe '15
Illini	Kevan Lee Lum '14 [1-3] Alexander Loch '12 [4-6]	Alexander Loch '12 [1-3] Kevan Lee Lum '14 [4-6]
University of Illinois - Chicago	Adelheid Rittmeyer '13	Michelle Olvera '14
Flames	Dustin Domer '13	Anthony Perez '13
University of Michigan	Ryan Seago '14	Kirsten Corneliussen '13
Blue	Brand Koster '12	Nicholas Rachmaninoff '14
University of Michigan	David Oliver '14	Britt Wedenoja '11
Maize	Riley Moran '14	Abigail Robinson '13
University of Michigan	Lawrence Jau '13	Ansley Semack '14
Wolverines	Matthew Graham '13	Graham Kozak '12
University of Minnesota	Ryan Grosch '14 [1-2] Matthew Thompson '11 [3-6]	Aaron Martinson '14 [1-2]
Minnesota Women	Drake Lundeen '14	Kirstin Wilson '12
University of Notre Dame	Jeffrey Miller '12 [1-6]	Lauren George '13 [1-4] Thoms Temmerman '13 [5-6]
Fighting Irish 1	Peter Roehmholdt '14 [1-6]	Maria Skorcz '14 [1-4] Christopher Moore '14 [5-6]
University of Notre Dame	Emily Golden '13	Tony Michuda '13
Fighting Irish 2	Kevin Condit '13	Anne Murphy '13
University of Wisconsin	John Kinzel '14	Nicholas Burger '14
Badgers 1	Brendan Boylan '13 [1-6]	Ella Stutz '13 [1-4] Gavin Hussey '11 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin	Christine Porter '11	Kelly Kramer '13
Badgers 2	Adelaide Davis '13	Katlyn Putney '14
Western Michigan University	Charlie Trost '12	John Buzzell '14
Western Michigan	Aras Karaitis '12	Vytenis Karaitis '14

Conditions — 04/09/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 93% · Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From E (95°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1014.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · S 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

WYW